New York City is about to host a major gathering of prediction market insiders. On October 22–23, NEXTPredict NYC 2026 will bring together some of the industry's biggest names for what's expected to be the largest-ever conference dedicated entirely to prediction markets. I'll be there representing Trade Handle, covering the…
Katie Zacharia, the new White House press secretary, bombed her debut in front of the microphones on Tuesday — so much so that prediction markets are asking when she will be fired by the Trump administration. The 41-year-old conservative commentator replaced Karoline Leavitt on Oct. 9 and handled questions for…
Ohio won't back down in its fight with prediction markets. The Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) has ordered 10 companies, including Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase, to stop offering sports event contracts in the state. The move follows a federal appeals court ruling that favored Ohio's authority to regulate those products.…
The NBA and WNBA announced on Tuesday campaigns to educate fans about responsible sports betting and prediction market practices. The campaign, which will launch during the upcoming season, will be conducted in collaboration with the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG). It will include a new advertisement spot that will…
Prediction markets are expected to reach $187 billion in taker volume before the end of the year, according to a new report. Investment banking company Macquarie Group settled on its prediction in a new report, which updated the previous $190 billion projection released last month. The new value is still…
Everyone seems obsessed with how often prediction markets get things right. Whenever a major election, sporting event, or economic announcement comes up, another conversation starts about whether traders saw the result coming before everyone else. But I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves. Prediction markets have a trust…
Ronald Acuña Jr. probably hoped his final appearance of the season would make headlines for something other than a disappointing playoff exit. Instead, the Atlanta Braves star is making history off the field, becoming the first MLB player to sign an individual partnership with prediction-market platform Kalshi. The announcement came…
A prominent government figure that once opposed prediction markets is now firmly backing them. Former Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, who played a key role in the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reforms, has come full circle, and is now a paid lobbyist for Kalshi. It’s been 16 years since Lincoln had a…
A Kalshi NFL prediction market trader scored a huge win in an NFL matchup that failed to produce one — much to the dismay of Dan Quinn and fans of the Washington Commanders and New York Giants. Sunday’s Week 5 NFC East battle made history for all of the wrong…
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) published an Interim Final Rule that differentiated gambling products from swaps offered by prediction markets. A Friday announcement confirmed that swaps, which fall under CFTC regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, do not include casino games and sportsbook betting odds. Both rulings include a…
If you're wondering who regulates prediction markets in the US, the answer isn't quite as straightforward as it should be. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees federally registered exchanges like Kalshi, but that hasn't stopped individual states from challenging the contracts those exchanges offer. The disagreement has become particularly…
Polls and prediction markets often end up in the same conversation. During an election, for example, you could see a candidate sitting at 48% in a poll while a prediction market gives that person a 60% chance of winning. It's easy to look at those numbers and wonder why they…
Prediction markets are designed to turn traders' collective views into a constantly changing forecast of what could happen next. That doesn't mean prediction markets are always right, and a market showing a 70% probability certainly doesn't guarantee that outcome will happen. Sometimes the favorite loses. Sometimes new information changes everything…
Every prediction market starts with a question. Will a candidate win an election? Will a team win a championship? Will inflation finish above a certain level? Turning those questions into contracts you can actually trade, however, takes considerably more work than simply writing a headline and hitting publish. Prediction market…
Prediction market fees can look simple until you actually start trading. You buy a contract at one price, sell it at another, and somewhere along the way the platform may take a fee. Understanding those costs matters because even small fees can change how much you actually make from a…
If you have ever opened a prediction market and wondered where all those prices, quantities, and available contracts actually come from, the answer starts with the order book. It is one of the most important pieces of any exchange-based prediction market, but it can look unnecessarily complicated when you first…