Prediction markets had a pretty good election night. Kalshi and Polymarket both had Democrats favored to take control of the House and Senate, and that's exactly what happened. For an industry that has spent the last couple of years trying to convince people its prices are worth paying attention to,…
As the NFL season hits its halfway mark, users of prediction markets have traded nearly $300 million in contracts forecasting the winner of the Super Bowl. Industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket reported a combined $292.2 million in notional trading volume in their 2027 NFL champion markets. And while sportsbooks are…
Kalshi is entering a business Wall Street has largely kept to itself, and some of the industry's biggest names aren't thrilled. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved single-stock perpetual futures on November 3, opening the door for these contracts to trade on regulated U.S. exchanges. Kalshi jumped right in,…
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the 2026 midterms would be the first prediction market election. That may have been an understatement. Early reports have leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket combining for over $1.9 billion in trading volume related to elections. The massive trading numbers illustrate the rise of…
With voting underway across the country, prediction markets are expecting a Blue Wave in the midterm elections. Industry leader Kalshi believes that Democrats are a near-guarantee to assume control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The belief isn’t as full-throated in the U.S. Senate, although Kalshi still said that the…
A lot is happening in sports right now, and prediction market companies are doing their best to get a piece of the action. With football in full swing and basketball and hockey filling out the weekly schedule, several exchanges are offering new customers extra trading funds for trying their platforms.…
Noah Poser has a problem that most sports traders would probably love to have. He says he became successful enough on traditional sports platforms that they started limiting how much money he could put into his positions. Eventually, he decided he'd had enough and took his trading elsewhere. That elsewhere…
Prediction markets spent the last couple of years promising that they were the best representation of the everyday American's mindset. The midterm elections will put that to the test. A test-run of the platforms’ accuracy went down in flames during last month’s Brazilian Presidential Election. In just 24 hours, operators…
Maryland continues to outlaw election betting in the state, but you wouldn’t know it by the volume prediction markets are getting on their political event contracts. The state presently restricts certain types of sports wagers, such as college player prop bets, while state employees are forbidden from participating in election…
Kalshi continued its fight against individual U.S. states this week, as it submitted a federal lawsuit in an effort to block Louisiana from controlling its actions within the state. Louisiana has been loudly against prediction markets like Kalshi, largely because they view them as gambling entities. As such, Louisiana has…
You don't have to correctly predict the winner of a football game to make money trading that game on a prediction market. In fact, you could sell your contracts before halftime, collect a profit, and never have to worry about the final score. That's something people overlook when they first…
Nobody gets into prediction markets because they're excited about doing their taxes. You're there to follow events, find contracts at attractive prices, and hopefully make some money along the way. But once those profits start adding up, another question comes up: How much of that money do you actually get…
You'd think figuring out who won would be the easy part of prediction markets. After all, the whole idea is to put money behind something happening or not happening. Once the event is over, somebody gets paid, somebody doesn't, and that's that. Except it doesn't always work that way. Sometimes…
One thing I like about prediction markets is that you can see what people think will happen based on where they put their money. But there's a catch that I don't think gets enough attention. Just because a contract trades at a certain price doesn't mean that price always gives…
Picture this a YouTube editor finishes working on a video that won't go public until next week. The video reveals something people are actively trading contracts on, and the editor already knows exactly what's coming. If they use that information to trade before anyone else sees the video, the exchange…
Open Kalshi or Polymarket on any given day, and you'll probably find something new to trade. Maybe it's a question about the next Federal Reserve meeting, an upcoming election, or whether a particular NFL team will make the playoffs. But how do prediction markets create new markets, and who decides…