OpenAI and Kalshi quietly entered into a partnership that resulted in ChatGPT pushing data from Kalshi’s prediction markets, the New York Times reported.
The fruits of the partnership began earlier this week ahead of a pair of FIFA World Cup semifinal matches on Tuesday and Wednesday, the third-place game on Saturday, and the Final on Sunday. OpenAI said that Kalshi’s insights were only meant to provide users with additional information.
A quiet partnership
A section on OpenAI’s website discussing ChatGPT search options noted that certain queries would return data from Kalshi’s prediction markets. It also clarified that contracts could not be bought or sold directly from ChatGPT.
“For queries related to the 2026 World Cup, ChatGPT may show predictive information sourced from Kalshi to provide timely context about upcoming matches,” the website reads. “If and when this information appears, it will always be clearly labeled with ‘Source: Kalshi’. This is for informational purposes only.”
Search results prior to Tuesday’s matchup between France and Spain returned a graphic that showed France had a 60% chance of winning the match and advancing to the final. That was nearly identical, although still different, from Kalshi’s real-time market data, which said that France had a 59% chance of winning.
Spain won the match 2-0 behind goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro.
Searches such as “Who will win, Argentina or England” returned a graphic that said England had a 55% chance of winning as recently as matchday morning on Wednesday. Again, that is slightly different from Kalshi’s real-time data, which says the Three Lions have a 53% chance of advancing. England last had a 55% chance (based on rounding 54.5%) at 6:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
ChatGPT’s auto-generated response also directly conflicts with the market data it provided from Kalshi. After being prompted, ChatGPT said that if it “had to pick a winner,” it would go with Argentina, giving it a 55% chance of winning.
The England-Argentina match has not happened at the time of writing.
Data-sharing taking off
The partnership is OpenAI’s first with an operator of prediction markets. On the flip side, it’s an extension of several data partnerships reached by Kalshi.
The American leader in prediction markets also struck deals with CNN and CNBC. Its top competitor, Polymarket, has a similar arrangemrent with Dow Jones entities, which includes the Wall Street Journal. Both also reached deals with Google that resulted in their market data being displayed on the Google Finance page.
The verbiage used by OpenAI clearly states that Kalshi’s market insights are purely for information. Regardless, showing the company’s markets will bring it more visibility during a time of unprecedented growth.
Recent financial figures showed the prediction markets generated more than $50 billion in notional trading volume during June. Kalshi generated $31 billion of that total.
All licensed prediction operators fall under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which, despite pushback from state officials, has continually emboldened operators by ordering them to offer various prediction markets and backing them in litigation against states.
Skepticism still remains. Fears of insider trading have been prevalent, and many state officials believe that platforms should be required to be locally licensed and required to pay gaming taxes.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Kalshi’s partnership with OpenAI is, effectively, another data-sharing partnership. ChatGPT does not specifically state that it doesn’t accept contract trades, but it does not include a way to buy or sell contracts or a link to Kalshi’s website. These types of partnerships feel like the natural evolution of prediction operators attempting to expand their reach.