Prediction markets are running into another major international fight, this time in one of the world’s largest online gaming markets. India is now moving more aggressively against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket after both companies continued to allow users in the country to access prediction markets despite new national restrictions.
The situation has escalated quickly over the past few weeks. Indian regulators already warned internet providers and VPN companies about access to prediction market platforms in April. Now, government officials say formal blocking orders targeting Kalshi could arrive within days after similar action was already taken against Polymarket.
India’s New Gaming Law Changed Everything
The foundation for this entire dispute is India’s new Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, often referred to as PROGA. The law officially went into effect on May 1 after being passed last year, creating a nationwide framework for how India plans to regulate online gaming moving forward. Under the law, India classifies platforms such as e-sports, social games, and online money games.
Real-money online gaming products now face broad restrictions under the framework, including limitations on payment processing, advertising, and platform operations. That immediately created problems for prediction markets. Indian officials now appear to view platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as falling directly into the prohibited category because users place money on future event outcomes and receive payouts tied to those outcomes.
Users Continued Trading Even After Warnings
One reason this story has gained so much attention is that trading activity seemingly continued despite government warnings. Bloomberg reported that Indian users were still signing up and accessing prediction markets after regulators issued notices targeting the platforms and VPN services helping users bypass restrictions. Kalshi reportedly continued onboarding users while maintaining communication with Indian regulators.
Polymarket also remained accessible to at least some users through alternative methods, including DNS changes and VPN workarounds discussed publicly online. Cricket trading volume became a major focal point during the controversy. A single IPL match between Lucknow Super Giants and Royal Challengers Bengaluru reportedly generated nearly $28 million in trading activity across Kalshi and Polymarket combined. That level of activity highlights why regulators are taking the category seriously.
India Joins a Growing Global Regulatory Push
India is far from the only country increasing pressure on prediction markets right now. Brazil recently moved to block Kalshi shortly after the platform expanded there. Several US states are also continuing to fight prediction market companies in court over sports-related contracts. The difference with India is that regulators appear to believe the legal framework is already much clearer.
Indian gaming lawyers quoted in multiple reports argued that prediction markets fall directly under the country’s prohibition on online money games rather than operate in a legal gray area. Enforcement still creates challenges, though. Policy experts noted that mirror websites and alternative domains often make blocking efforts much harder in the long term. A platform can disappear under one web address and quickly reappear under another, creating an ongoing cycle that regulators must keep chasing.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The bigger takeaway here is that prediction markets are increasingly colliding with international gaming laws as platforms expand globally. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket grew quickly partly because event contracts often sit outside traditional gambling structures in certain jurisdictions. That approach becomes much harder once countries begin writing laws specifically targeting real-money online event trading.
We also think India matters because of the sheer size of the market involved. Cricket alone creates enormous engagement potential for prediction market platforms, which helps explain why companies continue trying to operate despite regulatory pressure. The global expansion story around prediction markets is clearly still moving fast, though governments around the world are now pushing back much more aggressively than they were a year ago.