The Spurs were in a must-win situation heading into Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, and they delivered. While the series would not have been over with a loss, falling into a 3-1 hole against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder would have been an almost impossible climb.
San Antonio protected home court and forced the Thunder into one of their worst offensive games of the entire season, cruising to a 103-82 win. The series now shifts back to Oklahoma City tied at 2-2, but Kalshi users are still giving a significant edge to the Thunder.
Series Winner on Kalshi: Spurs vs Thunder
It’s remarkable to see where these two teams were just over a year ago in the Western Conference Championship market. The Thunder held a 35% chance to win the West on July 17, 2025, which was the highest figure of any team in the conference.
They were expected to make a deep playoff push, and they have answered the challenge by sitting just two wins away from a return to the NBA Finals. The San Antonio Spurs, on the other hand, were given just a 3% chance of representing the West in the NBA Finals back in July.
San Antonio came out of nowhere this season, so their current 39% likelihood of winning the Western Conference is a significant upgrade from where the market started. The Thunder's series champion percentage sits at 61%, while the Spurs come in at 39%.
Oklahoma City's number was as high as 70.4% heading into Game 4, but the double-digit loss knocked them back more than nine percentage points in a single night.
San Antonio jumped from 29.9% to 39% after their win, and if they can steal Game 5 on the road, that number would likely climb above 50% on Kalshi.
Series Spread on Kalshi: Spurs vs Thunder
With the Western Conference Finals shifting back to Oklahoma City, the series now becomes a best of three. For traders looking at the series spread, Kalshi users are leaning toward a seven game series.
Oklahoma City has the better chance of finishing things in six games. They are sitting at a 29% chance to close the series in six, which would win the -1.5 games market. A $10 trade on Oklahoma City -1.5 would pay out $35. If you take the no side of that trade, meaning the series goes the distance, the payout would be $14.
Any trader who trusts the Spurs to win the next two games could see a $56 return on a $10 investment. While that scenario is unlikely, anything is possible in the NBA, especially with the way Game 4 played out.
Looking Ahead to Game 5
The Spurs finally seemed to find an answer for the Thunder's onslaught of guards in Game 4. Oklahoma City shot just 33% from the field and 18% from three, a stark drop-off from how they had been performing throughout the postseason.
The Thunder have been dialed in from deep for most of this series, so the cold shooting night was a significant change. If San Antonio can continue to limit Oklahoma City's success from beyond the arc, they give themselves an excellent chance to steal another game.
Victor Wembanyama is the best shot blocker in the NBA, which makes points in the paint tough to come by. Even with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein anchoring their frontcourt, the Thunder are still at a size disadvantage against Wembanyama, and that matchup will continue to shape the rest of the series.
Oklahoma City is currently trading at a 63% chance to win Game 5 on Kalshi, and the number is on the rise. They are favored by 5.5 points in the matchup.