When it comes to sports, anything can happen. The thrill of the unknown is what makes sports interesting, and that unpredictability is exactly why games tie perfectly into prediction markets.
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly across the United States following extensive legal battles over the past few years, and users now have the ability to predict almost anything, from what Donald Trump will say on a given week to the twists and turns of a celebrity's romantic life.
While these kinds of topics work on exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket, the same cannot be said about pre-recorded reality television.
Prediction Market Spoilers
When you head over to Kalshi and click on the Culture tab, you will find prediction markets for nearly every reality television show currently on the airwaves. Active markets include the winners of Top Chef and Chopped, and you can always find the big shows like Survivor, The Bachelor, and Love Island on the platform when they are in season.
A traditional bookie or regulated sports betting platform would never take action on a reality television winner. These outcomes are pre-recorded, and the results often leak well before the finale airs.
Since prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are happy to take the ticket because they are capitalizing on the transaction fee with zero risk to themselves.
Platform users are not always correct, but we have seen a clear pattern emerge: the reality television star who is winning on Kalshi tends to win in real life as well.
Survivor isn’t Happy
CBS first aired Survivor on May 31, 2000, and the show has been thriving ever since. Even though every season is recorded months in advance, nobody outside the production knew the winner before prediction markets entered the equation.
Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans recently concluded, and the show was one of the most trending markets across Kalshi. According to Variety, 97% of Kalshi users predicted Aubry Bracco as the winner, and that turned out to be the correct selection.
Survivor host Jeff Probst has been outspoken about prediction markets, saying, "They have figured out a way to capitalize. It doesn't sit well with me as a human. I get it, they built a great business. They don't care."
On the day of the Survivor 50 finale, Kalshi sent a push notification to users that read, "Aubry's at 97%, is the island already decided?" That kind of marketing turns the spoiler itself into a selling point.
Pop culture outlets have also capitalized on the trend, turning these markets into content. Various accounts on X regularly tweet out the winning percentages, amplifying the expected results even further and potentially dragging down the show's viewership in the process. The trend is not limited to Survivor 50, either.
On Survivor 49, the eventual winner Savannah Louie had an 86% chance to win heading into the finale. Prediction markets are sharp when it comes to reality television winners, and that sharpness is the entire problem.
Suspicious Trading Patterns
When show results are pre-determined, it leads to suspicious trading patterns, and Survivor has been the most glaring example. One Kalshi user traded $45,500 on Bracco to make just $4,500 in profit.
A sportsbook would never take a wager like that, but Kalshi encourages the trade. The total trading volume on a Survivor market where the winner was effectively already known came in at just under $33 million.
Contestants are sworn to secrecy, so it is widely believed that the leaks originate from production staff. Whatever the source, Kalshi and Polymarket have made one thing clear: secrets spread like wildfire in the world of reality television, and the integrity of these markets suffers as a result.