The top three traders on the prediction platform Polymarket won nearly three-quarters of a million dollars over the last seven days.
Accounts belonging to “surfandturf,” “weflyhigh,” and “Erasmus.” won between $217,356 and $303,907, predominantly in sports markets. The leader, surfandturf, reached their leading profit number from more than $1.4 million in contract purchases during the seven-day period.
The top dog
“surfandturf” was by far the most active user of the three leaders. The account, which only went online in March, has logged 221 predictions, including a horde of positions in NBA markets, with amounts ranging from just over $1 to eight figures.
The majority of the user’s wins came on the back of the New York Knicks’ Game 3 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. They won a multitude of purchases from all of their positions — the largest of which were three contracts all for $44,000 — by backing the Knicks, who won outright as underdogs, 121-108.
The user was back in action ahead of Game 4 on Monday night, purchasing another slew of contracts with standouts of the following sizes:
- $139,999.99
- $55,000
- $53,000 (twice)
- $44,005.67
- $43,130.01
- $48,028.81
- $13,250 (twice)
The runner-up
“Weflyhigh,” whose account was registered in Dec. 2025, was slightly more succinct with their trades, although they were still highly active — and lethally accurate. The individual timed their support for the Oklahoma City Thunder well, capitalizing on their underdog value on the road in their Game 3 win over the San Antonio Spurs. They did not purchase any contracts for Game 4, which was won by the Spurs.
The user was also all over the Vegas Golden Knights ahead of their Game 3 victory over the Colorado Avalanche on Monday, making five separate purchases of $16,400 in contracts, in addition to a $15,261.38 purchase and three $8,600 splurges.
Their biggest losses came back in Game 1 of the NHL Eastern Conference Finals. They had a ton of money riding on the Hurricanes, including three $25,600 purchases for $.64 contracts. Those were all graded as losses when the Montreal Canadiens stole Game 1 as an underdog, 6-2. The user also has a multitude of outstanding Stanley Cup future contracts, including $188,684.32 on the Avalanche not to win the league championship.
The bronze medal
“Erasmus.,” the most tenured of the three users with an account dating back to July 2024, was the only one of the three leaders not to venture into the world of sports. Instead, they kept their focus on politics and global events.
The user has a history of unbelievable accuracy. They only have one losing position on their account, and it was the first one they ever held on Michelle Obama winning the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election.
With over $1.6 million in active positions, their largest active market involves the U.S. and Iran permanent peace deal. They have $361,703.14 in contracts that say a deal will be reached by May 31 and $297,498.69 that says a deal will be agreed upon by June 30. Their position value spiked $125,572.68 from those two markets alone.
The user was active in the U.S. and Iran peace market as recently as one day ago. Purchasing $17,326.01 in contracts that say a deal will be reached by a variety of dates. The soonest of which is Tuesday, May 26.