America’s leading prediction operators are positioning France and Spain as the top challengers in the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which is just two weeks away from kicking off. Kalshi and Polymarket both have the two nations listed at 17% probability of winning the tournament. England has an 11% chance at both platforms, but there is slight disagreement about several of the remaining nations.
World Cup prediction market price comparison
Despite their national reputation, Spain — known as La Roja — only won the World Cup one time at the 2010 tournament in South Africa. Coincidentally, that was the only time they finished better than fifth since 1950.
The Spanish team did, however, win the 2024 European Championship, which is a major reason they are considered one of the teams to beat. France won the 2018 World Cup and finished as the runner-up in 2022, falling to Argentina in the final on penalty kicks in spite of Kylian Mbappé’s hat trick.
Both platforms have England third and Portugal fourth. Both have England at an 11% chance of being the last team remaining in the tournament, while Polymarket also has Portugal at 11% to Kalshi’s 10%. Brazil and defending champion Argentina were both given a 9% probability at Kalshi, whereas Polymarket had Brazil at nine and Argentina at 8%.
Although the markets are similar, they indicate differences in contract value for customers. Below are the price margins for each of the top contenders in FIFA World Cup prediction markets at the two leading operators.
| - | Kalshi | Polymarket | Price Difference |
| Spain | $.17 | $.175 | Kalshi ($.005) |
| France | $.168 | $.175 | Kalshi ($.007) |
| England | $.109 | $.113 | Kalshi ($.004) |
| Portugal | $.10 | $.107 | Kalshi ($.007) |
| Brazil | $.095 | $.094 | Polymarket ($.001) |
| Argentina | $.091 | $.083 | Polymarket ($.008) |
Other FIFA World Cup contenders
The 2026 World Cup marks the expansion of the tournament from 32 to 48 teams. 12 groups of four teams will compete to fill out a 32-team single-elimination bracket, which will then be used to produce one final winner.
Approximately 75% probability was used by the top six contenders mentioned above. Germany leads the chase pack with a 5% probability at both Kalshi and Polymarket, followed by the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway.
There’s a logjam of teams with one or 2% probability at both major prediction operators, followed by a slew of competitors with less than 1% chances of winning the once-every-four-years tournament. These are the World Cup prediction market prices and differences for every team with at least a 1% chance of winning the tournament.
| - | Kalshi | Polymarket | Price Difference |
| Germany | $.051 | $.052 | $.001 (Polymarket) |
| Netherlands | $.036 | $.035 | $.001 (Kalshi) |
| Belgium | $.026 | $.018 | $.008 (Polymarket) |
| Norway | $.023 | $.025 | $.002 (Kalshi) |
| Colombia | $.018 | $.094 | |
| Japan | $.016 | $.021 | $.005 (Kalshi) |
| Morocco | $.016 | $.015 | $.001 (Polymarket) |
| Mexico | $.014 | $.011 | $.003 (Polymarket) |
| USA | $.014 | $.012 | $.002 (Polymarket) |
| Urguay | $.011 | $.011 | |
| Switzerland | $.01 | $.01 |
FIFA World Cup prediction news
While the tournament is yet to get underway, Kalshi and Polymarket users have traded close to $1.3 billion in contracts related to the eventual winner. A staggering $1.2 billion of that came from Polymarket users. Polymarket user “FootballFan98” has nearly $200,000 worth of contracts on France not winning, $140,000 on Spain winning, and another $82,000 on Brazil winning the World Cup.
They have the most contracts for each position in the markets for all three teams. The event will begin on June 11 when Mexico, one of three North American host countries, plays the first match of the tournament against South Africa in Mexico City. The World Cup Final will take place on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.