Customers at leading prediction market operator Kalshi were drawn to finance and entertainment markets this week, keying in on both international and local affairs.
According to Kalshi’s website, the three markets with the largest trading handle this week involved Bitcoin, the price of gas and oil, and Drake’s new album release. This does not include sports markets, which have been dominated by the French Open and NBA and NHL Playoffs.
All eyes on Bitcoin
The highest-trending market at Kalshi this week is related to the price of Bitcoin at 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, May 29. Nearly $3 million in contracts are bought and sold. Markets begin as low as “$64,500 or above” and increase in $500 increments. All of the markets have at least a 92% probability until $73,000 or above, which has an 81% probability.
$73,500 or above has a 61% chance; $74,000 or above has a 39% chance; $74,500 or above has an 18% chance; and $75,000 or above has a 7% probability. Markets extend as high as $89,000 or above.
Kalshi processed more than 60 contract purchases of at least $10,000 in the Bitcoin price prediction market. The price of Bitcoin sits at $73,648.56 as of 6:00 a.m. on Friday morning, down $3,327.42 (4.3%) over the last five days and $3,342.25 (4.3%) over the last month.
Traders tracking gas and oil
The rising cost of gas and oil has been a popular topic of conversation since the armed conflict with Iran erupted at the end of February. According to AAA, the national average cost of gas is $4.39 per gallon for regular, $4.89 for mid-grade, $5.27 for premium, and $5.52 for diesel.
Kalshi prediction traders also have a special interest in the value of these two commodities. Nearly three-quarters of a million dollars went into predicting the costs, close to $500,000 of that related to oil (WTI).
Market data from the time of writing shows a 91% probability that oil is valued below $91 per barrel. The market with the second-highest probability is $91-91.99, but it only has a 5% chance. The current price of oil is $87.38.
Prediction markets for U.S. gas prices were set in $.02 increments. All markets from $4.20 to $4.30 have at least an 80% probability, but above $4.32 and $4.34 have chances of 49% and 29%, respectively. The expected likelihood drops further for increasing values. More than $250,000 was traded in this market.
Drake tops the charts (again)
The third of three major markets was tied to the top Billboard Hot 100 song for the upcoming week, which already processed nearly $150,000 in trading volume. International megastar Drake’s “Janice STFU” from the album Iceman, released on May 15, is a strong 89% favorite. Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” is the only other market with a probability greater than 1%.
Several other recently-released Drake songs are in contention, as is “DAISIES” by Justin Bieber, “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars, and even Michael Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” which is still enjoying a resurgence following the release of the biographical drama Michael last month.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Kalshi’s robust offerings in various industries give customers access to an array of topics; however, sports are still king on this platform. The platform handled more than $330 million in trading action related to the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup champion, and FIFA World Cup winner. A recent report found that approximately 85% of Kalshi’s April trading handle was based in sports, even without major draws such as March Madness or the Super Bowl.