Prediction markets for Bitcoin, the top Netflix show, and President Trump’s social media activity were hot topics at Kalshi over the weekend.
According to the “Trending” tab on leading prediction operator Kalshi, the three markets were among the website’s most trafficked. Honorable mentions went to the Billboard Hot 100 number-one song, the price of gold, and other financial markets. This does not include sports markets, which were dominated by the NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup Final.
Where is Bitcoin headed?
Cryptocurrency reached mass consciousness a few years ago. Bitcoin, the most lucrative of all cryptos, has offered both great investing and trading opportunities.
Nearly $1 million has already been traded in the market related to the price of Bitcoin at 5:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday. After peaking at a 24-hour high of $73,859.22, the price is down to $71,174.83 at the time of writing, around noon on Monday.
The top “middle-ground” outcomes for the Bitcoin prediction market are $71,000 or above (54% chance) and $71,500 or above (47%). Contracts are available from as low as $61,000 or above (99% chance) and $85,500 or above (>1% chance).
The Boroughs dominating Netflix
The streaming platform Netflix has more than 325 million worldwide users, according to DemandSage. As such, they are responsible for providing their customers with a bevy of entertainment options across films and television shows.
More than $200,000 have already been traded in Kalshi’s prediction market for the Top US Netflix show this week. Season 1 of The Boroughs, an offbeat sci-fi show from the creators of Stranger Things about a retirement community and a ring of supernatural creatures, is a dominant early favorite at 93%.
Season 2 of The Four Seasons (9%) is the only other outcome available with a likelihood greater than 1%.
LA crime drama Nemesis was the top show last week. The Boroughs was second.
Trump’s Truth Social activity
Kalshi is stuffed with political markets, although very few can stnad up to their “Trump Truth Social posts this week.”
President Trump was banned from X, then known as Twitter, in January 2021 following the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Although he was reinstated in Nov. 2022 after Elon Musk purchased the platform, Trump primarily makes his online posts on Truth Social, a “free-speech” platform he launched under Trump Media & Technology Group while he was banned from Twitter.
Despite being busy with his Presidential obligations, Trump has a proclivity to fire off his thoughts for the world to read. His most recent post at the time of writing was “Has anyone ever seen a happy Dumocrat???”
Kalshi’s markets range from less than 80 Truth Social posts all the way to at least 220 posts this week. The market is volatile, with no outcome maintaining a probability greater than 24%. That one outcome is at least 220; 200-220 posts, the next-closest outcome, has a 15% likelihood.
More trending markets
Kalshi’s other trending markets touched a variety of industries, including entertainment, politics, and finance.
Nearly $150,000 in trades were processed in markets pertaining to the price of oil on Friday. $60,000 was found in both Netflix’s top movie this week and if Trump will sign an executive order.
Ella Langley’s Choosin’ Texas is also an early favorite for the Billboard Hot 100 top song of the week, while Kalshi users continue to be fascinated by the steadily climbing price of gold.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Kalshi, Polymarket, and other top prediction operators are home to a seemingly unlimited number of markets across all of the major industries. Sports are the headliner, although the ever-changing political, financial, and entertainment worlds have created even more opportunities for traders.