Prediction markets are favoring Canada to beat the Republic of Ireland in a World Cup warmup match at Stade Saputo in Montreal on Friday evening.
The 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick-off will set the Canada vs. Ireland matchup in motion. The host country is just one week away from returning the the World Cup and has a 63% or 64% chance of winning the match, according to leading prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket.
The match can be seen on FOX One, Fubo, and Prime Video in America, TSN, RDS, or OneSoccer in Canada, and RTÉ2 in Ireland.
Canada vs. Ireland Prediction Market Probabilities
Canada is one week away from competing with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland in Group B for a spot in the knockout portion of the World Cup bracket. The Republic of Ireland does not have the same summer plan, as it was knocked out by Czechia on penalties in the European playoffs. This is the sixth consecutive Men’s World Cup for which Ireland has failed to qualify.
Neither team truly has anything other than pride on the line in this matchup; however, Canada will be eager to sharpen their tools in one final outing before having the chance to represent their country on the largest stage in the sport.
The Kalshi userbase believes that Canada has a 63% chance of winning the match. There is a 22% likelihood of a draw and a 16% chance of an Ireland win.
Polymarket sees the match similarly. Its market has Canada down for a 64% chance, a draw at 24%, and an Ireland win at 14%.
Canada Predictions
The Canadians are on a seven-game unbeaten streak, with their last loss coming against Australia on Oct. 10, 1-0. They beat Uzbekistan their last time out, 2-0, and won three of their last four.
Striker Jonathan David is the country’s all-time leading goal-scorer (39) and regularly leads the line. Attacker Marcelo Flores has already been confirmed to be a scratch from the World Cup due to a torn ACL suffered last week, while captain and defender Alphonso Davies is working to make it back from an injury in time for the opening match of the tournament.
Although Canada hasn’t quite broken through on the national stage, its development as a soccer nation over the last five years has been noteworthy, climbing to 30th in the latest FIFA world rankings.
Ireland Predictions
Ireland has not done anything overly impressive since its heartbreaking loss against Czechia on March 26, although it hasn’t lost during that time, it played a goalless draw with North Macedonia, beat Grenada 5-0, and then took down Qatar 1-0 in its last match on May 28.
Striker Troy Parrott and goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher are the leaders of the Irish team. Parrott bagged a hat trick against Hungary in a 3-2 win on Nov. 16, although midfielder Jack Moylan did the same against Grenada. Moylan also, coincidentally, got himself sent off against Qatar.
Ireland is a combative soccer team that looks to engage with their opponents whenever their defense is threatened. Parrott can be clinical in front of the net, but he doesn’t have consistent support from his teammates.
Canada vs. Ireland Trade Handle Pick
Upsets are an ever-present threat in sports, and that’s no different with World Cup warmup friendlies. However, it’s reasonable to say that Canada should be more focused than its Irish counterparts, who should be thinking about their summer vacations.
Canada is the better and more athletic team. They could run into trouble if Ireland successfully defends its low block and can hoof the ball up the pitch to Parrott, but it’s difficult to see them having much attacking success.
Canada vs. Ireland prediction markets show that Canada is the favorite. That’s understandable, but we have a sneaky feeling that this match could end in a draw, in what would be a disappointing result for the home team