With the World Cup in full swing, Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction markets are favoring the host nation in a Group B matchup at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada, on Friday.
The latest market data from leading prediction platform Kalshi has Canada, one of three host countries, at better than a coin flip’s chance of earning three points from the match. That would set them in motion toward qualifying for the Knockout, which they’ve never done in their country’s history.
The match will begin at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen via television broadcast on FOX and Telemundo or via live-streaming from Peacock and Fubo.
Canada vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction Market Probabilities
Kalshi’s World Cup prediction market data at the time of writing shows that Canada has a 54% chance of winning their Group Stage match on Friday. There is a 27% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of Bosnia & Herzegovina winning.
Being that this is only one of three matches that both teams will play during the Group Stage, it is too early to say what kind of implications this will have on the teams that qualify for the bracket. However, Kalshi’s Group B Qualifiers market shows that Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina have 87% and 67% chances of reaching the next stage, respectively.
More than $530,000 in predictions have been traded at Kalshi. The market has remained in consistent favor of Canada, with its probability of a win never falling below 47% since opening.
Canada Preview
Twice-capped American international Jesse Marsch is in charge of Canada, which qualifies for the World Cup for just the third time in its history. It also appeared at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, but lost all three Group Stage matches while scoring two goals and conceding seven.
The Canadians are riding an eight-game unbeaten streak, although five of those were draws. Additionally, only one of those teams is listed higher than 45th in FIFA’s world rankings. They beat Uzbekistan on June 1, 2-0, and drew with Ireland on June 5, 1-1.
Captain and defender Alphonso Davies will be out for the opener with a hamstring injury. Defender Moïse Bambito is in serious danger of missing the match, and midfielder Marcelo Flores is out for the tournament with a knee injury.
In classic Marsch fashion, Canada uses presses extremely aggressively and attempts to speed up the tempo. They will suffer without Davies to lead that, but striker Jonathan David will be the best finisher on the pitch.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Preview
This is only Bosnia-Herzegovina’s second appearance at the World Cup. The other time occurred in 2014, when they failed to advance from the Group Stage after beating Iran but losing to Nigeria and Argentina.
The Balkan nation earned a spot in the competition by shockingly defeating Italy on penalty kicks in the World Cup Playoff. They didn’t lose in their last five outings, and although they faced stiffer competition than Canada did in several of those, the score was knotted after 90 minutes in their last four contests.
Striker Haris Tabakovic is considered unlikely to play in the opening match as he continues to fight ankle and toe injuries. Beyond that, the team is about as healthy as it could reasonably expect to be after months of domestic competition.
This country likes to defend in a standard 4-4-2 and use aggressive and direct attacks on offense. They prefer to create chaos in the box with long throws and crosses to big bodies rather than dancing around defenders.
Top Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina Player Markets
Kalshi offers player-focused World Cup prediction markets for users.
The player with the highest likelihood of scoring a goal is Canadian attacker Jonathan David (34%). His countryman, Cyle Larin, is next in line (16%).
David also has the highest chance of bagging an assist (8%). Amar Dedic and Sead Kolašinac lead Bosnia-Herzegovina in chances of scoring or assisting (7%).
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina Trade Handle Pick
This match, which will take place in front of Canada’s home fans, could be either a fairytale beginning of a deep run through the tournament, or something straight out of a nightmare.
Canada has better talent in its squad, but it is more injured. Both teams also couldn’t seem to avoid draws during their unbeaten streak, and Bosnia’s physicality could be tough to break down in transition if the game is slowed down and muddied.
The Trade Handle Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction market pick is “No” for Canada to win, currently trading for $.47. Our pick would be a draw, although taking the “No” for Canada offers more security if Bosnia wins.