Polymarket prediction markets have generated nearly $2.4 billion in trades prognosticating the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
According to Polymarket’s data at the time of writing, the USA — one of three host countries — received the largest volume of trades. That trend came to a screeching halt with the next most-traded teams, which were not host nations and only had a fraction of a chance of winning the tournament.
The most popular underdog
The USA’s $71.1 million trading volume is the highest mark on the board. 11 of 16 venues are located on American soil, including the final match at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
It makes sense that “homerism” would influence customers’ trades. However, South Korea, being the subject of the second-largest volume, is far off the beaten path.
According to Kalshi, the East Asian country has less than a 1% chance of winning the World Cup. It managed a fourth-place finish in 2002 and reached the Round of 16 in 2022, but it is still far from a world heavyweight.
With “Yes” contracts in the World Cup outright winner prediction market selling at $.005 each, South Korea is responsible for $67.5 million in trades. For context, that’s 47.4% more than the tournament favorite, Spain, which received $45.8 million in trades at the time of writing.
Big risks for big returns
Similar to South Korea’s unexpected popularity with traders, the Ivory Coast has the third-largest trading volume in World Cup futures at Polymarket.
The African nation, which has never made it past the Group Stage and failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, has “Yes” contracts trading at $.006 per share. In other words, traders would profit $166.67 per share if it managed to win the competition.
Both the Ivory Coast and South Korea began their World Cup campaigns in style, recording wins to kick off the Group Stage. The former beat Ecuador 1-0 with a 90th-minute winner, and the latter took down Czechia, 2-1.
Near the top of the leaderboard
There are two other countries with at least $60 million in trades behind them: the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mexico.
Congo DR has the lowest chance of winning the World Cup of any team mentioned, with “Yes” shares going for $.002 each. Despite that, the largest “Yes” position holder, user “gloriafoster,” has $19,824.09 worth of shares, more than the largest holder in the South Korea and Ivory Coast markets.
Mexico’s inclusion in the group of teams with at least $60 million in trades can be rationalized through its status as another of the host nations and the venue of the opening match last Thursday.
These are the top holders for each of the five countries already mentioned:
- USA: mooseborzoi ($28,600.18)
- DR Congo: gloriafoster ($19,824.09)
- Ivory Coast: tnl ($17,339.45)
- Mexico: mooserbozoi ($22,018.08)
- South Korea: c0O0OLi0O03 ($11,785.93)
What about the favorites?
France was the most frequently targeted team among the top contenders, producing $52.3 million in trades. The 2018 World Cup champion and 2022 runner-up has a 16% chance of winning the tournament.
Portugal, which is third in probability with an 11% chance of winning, was next with $47.5 million in trades. Tournament favorite Spain was third.
The third host nation, Canada, generated nearly $52 million in trades, despite “Yes” shares selling for $.003 each.
The Trade Handle Prediction Market Take
Buying contracts for large underdogs provides users with the opportunity to earn an early profit if those teams begin their World Cup well. Users can sell off their shares at a higher price than they were purchased, or they can ride them out as the tournament progresses into the Knockout. Russia also showed the power of home-crowd support during its fourth-place finish at the 2018 World Cup, which it entered with a minuscule chance of being competitive.