Five days into the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and we've already been reminded how dangerous it is to assume anything. Spain couldn't score against Cape Verde. Belgium dropped points against Egypt. Uruguay needed a late equalizer just to avoid opening the tournament with a loss. Through the first week, favorites have looked far from comfortable. That's part of what makes Tuesday interesting.
Three teams with legitimate ambitions beyond simply reaching the knockout stage finally enter the tournament off to rough starts. Today, France takes on Senegal in one of the best group-stage matchups we've seen so far. Norway begins what many believe could be a surprise run through the bracket. Argentina starts its title defense with Lionel Messi once again at the center of everything.
Worth Reading: Day of World Cup Draws Leads to Massive Wins and Losses on Prediction Markets
France vs Senegal Prediction
If you were ranking the best opening matches any contender could face, Senegal would probably be near the top of the list. France is one of the favorites to win the World Cup, but this is not the type of opponent that allows you to ease into a tournament. Senegal has experience, athleticism, and enough talent across the field to punish mistakes.
Sadio Mane remains the headline name, but this roster is deeper than many casual fans realize. Nicolas Jackson, Ismaila Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Edouard Mendy have all played at the highest levels of European soccer. France still has more answers.
Kylian Mbappe enters the tournament among the favorites for both the Golden Boot and Golden Ball, and he's surrounded by arguably the deepest attack in the competition. Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue give France multiple ways to create chances even when opponents succeed in slowing Mbappe down.
The interesting thing about this match isn't whether France is better. It clearly is. The question is whether France can avoid the slow starts that have occasionally frustrated this group over the last few years. If Senegal hangs around for an hour, things could get uncomfortable.
Trade Handle Pick: France 2, Senegal 1
France vs Senegal: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Iraq vs Norway Prediction
This feels like one of the highest-pressure games of the entire group stage. Norway hasn't qualified for a World Cup since 1998. The excitement around this team is understandable. Erling Haaland is one of the best goal scorers on the planet. Martin Odegaard runs the midfield. Alexander Sorloth and Antonio Nusa provide even more attacking quality.
The problem is that none of that matters if Norway stumbles here. France is waiting later in the group. Senegal is waiting later in the group. Those matches will be difficult. This is the game Norway simply cannot afford to waste. Iraq deserves credit for getting here after a forty-year World Cup absence, but the draw couldn't have been much tougher.
The Iraq path to success probably involves slowing the game down, defending deep, and trying to turn this into a frustrating ninety minutes. Norway has too much quality for that approach to hold forever. The bigger story may be what this match means for Haaland's Golden Boot chances. If Norway is going to make a run, this is exactly the type of game where he needs to find the net.
Trade Handle Pick: Norway 3, Iraq 0
Iraq vs Norway: How To Watch
Kickoff: 6:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Argentina vs Algeria Prediction
Every World Cup eventually becomes a Lionel Messi story. Tuesday is where that story begins again. Argentina opens tournament play against an Algeria side that is better than most people are giving it credit for. Riyad Mahrez still has the ability to change a match with one touch. Amine Gouiri has been excellent over the last year. Algeria also scored goals consistently throughout qualifying.
Still, it's difficult to ignore what Argentina brings into this tournament. The defending champions have reached the point where they're no longer dependent on Messi producing magic every night. Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, and Rodrigo De Paul give Argentina one of the most complete rosters in the field.
That depth may matter even more than Messi. One thing traders should keep an eye on throughout the tournament is how aggressively Argentina manages Messi's minutes. Winning the group matters, but keeping him healthy for the knockout rounds matters even more. Argentina doesn't need to dominate this match. It just needs three points.
Trade Handle Pick: Argentina 3, Algeria 0
Argentina vs Algeria: How To Watch
Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
France enters the spotlight. Argentina begins defending its title. Norway finally gets the opportunity to prove it deserves all the dark-horse hype. For fans following the USA, the results matter as well.
Potential knockout-round opponents are beginning to emerge, and the races for both the Golden Boot and Golden Ball will start looking a lot clearer by the end of the day.
By tonight, we'll have a much better idea which contenders are ready to make a serious run and which ones might already be facing more pressure than expected.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Monday wasn't packed with goals, but it was packed with results that will reshape a few groups.
- Spain 0, Cape Verde 0
- Belgium 1, Egypt 1
- Uruguay 1, Saudi Arabia 1
- Iran 2, New Zealand 2
Cape Verde holding Spain scoreless is easily the result that stands out. Spain came into the tournament viewed as one of the favorites to lift the trophy, yet already finds itself under pressure heading into its second match.
Belgium and Uruguay also left points on the table, continuing a trend we've seen throughout this tournament. The gap between traditional powers and everyone else doesn't feel nearly as large as it did a decade ago.