The World Cup has been full of surprises so far. Spain tied Cape Verde on Monday, and there were also draws in Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay, Belgium vs. Egypt, and Iran vs. New Zealand.
Spain entered the tournament as the favorite to win the World Cup on Kalshi and most other prediction markets, making their result especially surprising. Belgium and New Zealand were also sizable favorites in their respective matches, proving once again that anything can happen on the world's biggest stage.
There is now more than $325 million in trading volume in the World Cup winner market. While the tournament is still in its early stages, we've already seen significant movement among several contenders.
France Is Climbing Back
France is currently the favorite to win the World Cup on both Kalshi and Polymarket with a 19.2% chance of lifting the trophy. Spain was the betting favorite when the tournament kicked off last week, but traders have shifted their outlook after the opening round of matches.
When the market opened in May 2025, France carried a 26.6% chance of winning the tournament. There was no major event that caused their decline. Instead, traders gradually moved toward other contenders such as Spain, Portugal, and Brazil.
Now, France is beginning to climb back toward its original number following a strong opening performance.
The French started slowly against Senegal but still managed to score three goals in a convincing victory.
Kylian Mbappé, widely regarded as the best player in the world, led the way with goals in the 66th and 96th minutes.
France faced just enough adversity to shake off any early tournament rust but never looked seriously threatened by Senegal. It was exactly the type of opening performance traders wanted to see.
Spain Falls After Its Opening Draw
The Spaniards did not start the World Cup on the right foot, creating doubt among traders about their tournament outlook. Spain boasts elite talent throughout the lineup, including Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, and Nico Williams.
Despite that star power, they were held to a scoreless draw by Cape Verde, a nation with a population of just over 500,000.
Spain remains the second favorite to win the World Cup with a 14.4% chance, but that number has fallen from 17.7% at the start of the tournament.
The result was disappointing, but Spain still created plenty of chances and was extremely unlucky not to score. I expect them to bounce back quickly.
For traders who still believe Spain is the best team in the field, there may be an opportunity to buy in before the knockout stage begins.
Portugal Is a Popular Pick Among Traders
Portugal has yet to play a match in the World Cup, but traders have high expectations based on the team's recent form.
The Portuguese entered the tournament with a 3-0-1 record in their international friendlies and will open World Cup play as a sizable favorite against DR Congo.
Portugal's roster is loaded with talent, including Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and Nuno Mendes.
Vitinha and Mendes have already developed strong chemistry while playing together at Paris Saint-Germain, and Portugal will be hoping that connection carries over to the international stage.
Portugal currently owns an 11% chance of winning the World Cup, up six percentage points from its lowest point in the market.
If the Portuguese open the tournament with a dominant performance, expect traders to continue piling into their World Cup winner position.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
There haven't been any dramatic shifts in the World Cup winner market just yet. Most of the movement has been in the 3% to 5% range, which is fairly normal at this stage of the tournament.
Unless we see another major upset or two, the market should remain relatively stable until the knockout rounds begin. Once elimination matches arrive, expect much larger swings as every result carries significantly more weight.