Wednesday felt like a reminder that World Cup group stages rarely go according to plan. Portugal was expected to pick up three points and move on. Instead, it spent the afternoon chasing a match against DR Congo and settled for a draw. England looked every bit like a contender. Colombia handled business. Ghana needed a goal deep into stoppage time just to get past Panama.
Now we head into a Thursday slate that feels a little different. Nobody playing today is among the handful of teams everyone is picking to win the tournament. Still, several of these matches could go a long way toward deciding who reaches the knockout rounds.
Mexico and South Korea might be playing for first place in Group A. Canada has a chance to finally earn the first World Cup win in program history. Czechia and South Africa are already staring at the possibility of an early exit.
Worth Reading: Sports Prediction Markets Yield More than Half-a-Billion in Daily Trades During World Cup
Czechia vs South Africa Prediction
There's no way around it. This is a massive game for both teams. South Africa looked overwhelmed against Mexico and made things even harder on itself with two red cards. Czechia lost to South Korea, but at least there were stretches where it looked dangerous. If you're looking for positives from opening matches, Czechia definitely had more of them.
What stands out to me is the style matchup. South Africa struggled with crosses and set pieces against Mexico. Unfortunately for them, that's exactly where Czechia tends to be at its best. Patrik Schick, Tomas Soucek, and the rest of this group aren't trying to play beautiful soccer. They're trying to make every corner kick feel dangerous. I don't think South Africa has enough attacking punch to force Czechia out of its comfort zone.
Trade Handle Pick: Czechia 2, South Africa 0
Czechia vs South Africa: How To Watch
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Prediction
This feels like one of those games people skip over until they realize how important it is. A draw leaves both teams in a difficult spot. A win puts either side in a great position heading into the final group match. Switzerland probably deserved better against Qatar. The Swiss generated chances all afternoon and somehow walked away with just a point. T
hat's frustrating, but it's also a reason for optimism. Creating chances is usually the hard part. Bosnia & Herzegovina earned a draw against Canada, but that result felt more like survival than control of the game. I trust Switzerland's midfield a little more, and in matches like this, that usually matters.
Trade Handle Pick: Switzerland 2, Bosnia & Herzegovina 1
Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: How To Watch
Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Canada vs Qatar Prediction
Canada probably left the opener feeling like it wasted an opportunity. The draw against Bosnia & Herzegovina wasn't terrible, but it wasn't what Canada wanted either. There were enough chances to win that match. The finishing simply wasn't there. The encouraging part is that the opportunities existed in the first place.
Jonathan David remains one of the best forwards in CONCACAF. Cyle Larin found the net in the opener. Playing at home in Vancouver should only help. Qatar grabbed a point against Switzerland, but let's be honest about that result.
Switzerland spent most of the match creating chances. Qatar benefited from some poor finishing and a little bit of luck. Canada doesn't need a masterpiece here. It just needs to be cleaner in front of the goal than it was last time.
Trade Handle Pick: Canada 2, Qatar 0
Canada vs Qatar: How To Watch
Kickoff: 6:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Location: BC Place, Vancouver, Canada
Mexico vs South Korea Prediction
This is the one I'm most excited to watch. Both teams looked good in their openers, playing with energy. Both teams know a win would put them in a fantastic position to advance. Mexico got exactly what it wanted against South Africa, but I'm not sure we learned much. South Africa was reduced to nine men and never really threatened.
South Korea had a tougher test and responded well. Son Heung-min didn't dominate the headlines, but the attack looked dangerous and confident throughout. The reason I'm leaning toward Mexico is simple: playing in Mexico. We've already seen how much the home atmosphere matters in this tournament. Estadio Akron should be one of the loudest environments we've seen so far, and if this game is close late, that crowd could absolutely become a factor.
Trade Handle Pick: Mexico 2, South Korea 1
Mexico vs South Korea: How To Watch
Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Estadio Akron, Guadalajara, Mexico
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
What I like about Thursday's slate is that every match feels meaningful for a different reason. Canada is chasing history. Mexico and South Korea are trying to take control of Group A. Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina are fighting to avoid falling behind in Group B. Czechia and South Africa are basically trying to keep their tournaments alive.
That's usually where prediction markets become more interesting. We're moving past the stage where everyone is guessing how teams will look. Now we actually have World Cup results to react to, and traders have started adjusting expectations accordingly.
The individual races are also beginning to take shape. Messi, Mbappe, Haaland, and Harry Kane all made early statements, but there's still a long way to go before the Golden Boot and Golden Ball races truly separate.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Wednesday started with a surprise and ended mostly the way people expected.
- Austria 3, Jordan 1
- Portugal 1, DR Congo 1
- England 4, Croatia 2
- Ghana 1, Panama 0
- Colombia 3, Uzbekistan 1
Portugal dropping points is obviously the headline. Through the first week of this tournament, favorites keep getting reminded that nothing comes easy. England's performance was probably the most impressive result of the day.
Harry Kane scored twice, Jude Bellingham added another goal, and the Three Lions looked far more dangerous than they did during parts of qualifying. Colombia quietly picked up a solid win as well, while Ghana needed a goal in the 95th minute to avoid what would have been a damaging draw.