USA vs. Australia prediction markets are responsible for more than $3.2 million in trades leading up to the Group D matchup in the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Friday.
The USA has a 61% and 62% chance of winning the match, according to top operators Kalshi and Polymarket. More than $3 million has already been staked on various outcomes just over 24 hours before kick-off, with the platforms expected to reach seven figures in trades before the game gets underway.
USA vs. Australia prediction markets
The latest prediction market data from Kalshi shows that it accepted $2.2 million in total trades ahead of the match, which will mark both teams’ second appearance at the ongoing tournament.
Polymarket hit $986,000. Both numbers are quickly increasing.
Kalshi users have the Americans down for a 62% chance of winning the match at the time of writing. There is a 22% chance of a draw and an 18% chance of Australia winning.
The market reflects kindly on the USA, who dominated Paraguay in their first match of the competition last week, 4-1. The USA’s chance of winning is up from 56% one month ago and 57% last Thursday.
Polymarket’s data tells a similar story. The U.S. had a 56% chance of winning, spiked to 64% immediately after their dominant performance against Paraguay, and settled into a 61% chance of winning. Polymarket also has a 22% likelihood of a draw and an 18% likelihood of Australia winning.
What do the whales think?
Kalshi does not show leaderboards for individual prediction markets. Polymarket does.
According to the latter’s data, user “TheMangler” holds a leading $36,063.09 worth of contracts predicting the USA will beat Australia. “alexubet” has $29,887.29 worth of shares, and “mooseborzoi” completes the podium with $17,729.13 in shares.
On the flip side, “swisstony” has $25,382.48 in predictions that the Red, White, and Blue won’t win the match, leaving the door open to either a draw or an Australian win. “sbsigner” has $12,189.80 saying the U.S. won’t win, and “Cannae” has $10,564.28 saying they’ll come up short.
Will the USA win Group D?
Both of the top operators are in agreement on the outlook of Group D. According to their World Cup prediction markets, the USA has a 69% chance of topping the group and moving onto the Knockout bracket.
Both platforms also have Australia second in probability at 21%, followed by Türkiye at 8%. Polymarket gave Paraguay a 3% chance of winning the group, while Kalshi gave the South American nation a 2% chance.
USA vs. Australia prediction market preview and pick
The Americans’ 4-1 win over Paraguay was one of, if not the best, performances they produced in modern history. They created chance after chance, ruthlessly finished in front of the goal, and defended well for the majority of the match. They also swarmed the midfield and suffocated Paraguay, which only finished with 35% possession.
Australia did well to take a 2-0 win against Türkiye, despite only having 28% possession. Both goals came when attackers had a full head of steam and were bearing down on the goal, while in-form goalkeeper Patrick Beach made eight saves.
In our opinion, the USA’s physical preparedness and tactical fluidity make them the class of Group D. This looks like a different team from the ones in years past, and they have more home support behind them than they’ve ever experienced. The Trade Handle USA vs. Australia prediction is that the U.S. will win the match, with contracts selling for $.61 and $.62 at Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively.