India is the latest country to impose an outright ban on the leading prediction market operator Kalshi, according to a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday.
Kalshi supposedly revised membership terms in the world’s most populous country on Wednesday, June 17. The updated permissions prohibit guests and entities located in the country from buying and selling the platform’s prediction markets.
Online money games
Kalshi’s withdrawal from India follows the passage and implementation of India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 (PROGA), which went into effect on May 1, 2026.
The legislation overhauled the nation’s gaming industry and, among many changes, outlawed “online money games.” These were defined as experiences where customers paid or deposited money with the chance of winning money or prizes, regardless of if they were games of skill or chance.
Prediction markets and trading platforms were included in the umbrella of “money games,” the operation or facilitation of which would carry up to three years imprisonment and a fine of up to INR 1 crore (about $105,000).
Sent a warning
Before PROGA went into effect, India made it clear that prediction markets would be the subject of legal action if they did not comply with the legislative changes.
The country’s Ministry of Electronic and Information Technology sent a letter dated April 25, 2026, to Kalshi, warning the platform that it still had not blocked access for Indian users.
The prohibition isn’t exclusive to Kalshi. Its leading competitor, Polymarket, was ordered to shut down inside the country’s borders on May 21, or run the risk of facing litigation.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets allow users to purchase contracts tied to “Yes” or “No” outcomes. These contracts can be traded among users up until they settle, at which time they will either cash for the full possible value or return $0 if they are incorrect.
While sportsbooks are almost always limited to sports betting odds approved by local regulators, prediction markets touch a variety of industries. Markets can often be found for finance, entertainment, politics, weather, and culture.
The recent surge in prediction markets’ popularity, however, is tied to the spread of sports event contracts. Critics argue that these contracts allow prediction platforms to act as unlicensed betting operators, while supporters maintain they are just another eligible market for customers to use in a peer-to-peer format.
Global disagreement
As debates over prediction markets intensify, countries aside from India have drawn lines in the sand.
In Europe, Spain temporarily banned both Kalshi and Polymarket pending a gambling license investigation. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands already effectively blocked or heavily restricted access to prediction platforms.
Elsewhere around the globe, Brazil shut down a multitude of prediction platforms in light of its latest gambling regulations. Indonesia also essentially blocked both platforms due to its strict national gambling laws.
Polymarket’s website lists 30 countries and four regions as “blocked” in a geographic restrictions tab.
Kalshi is also banned in 55 jurisdictions, now including India.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
National regulators are only in charge of what happens inside their country’s borders; however, the widespread challenges to prediction markets continue to suggest that either a large-scale adaptation in approach or a sweeping legal decision, will define the course of prediction markets. Regardless, prediction platforms aren’t in any danger of slowing down, as more than 77 million transactions were reported at Kalshi and Polymarket last week by DeFi Rate.