Tennesseans are America’s best predictors. That’s according to a study by TradeHandle.com, which asked 2,500 Americans to make a series of sports-related predictions, including NBA, MLB, and FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions. Across the full set of questions, Tennessee respondents correctly predicted the outcomes most often, scoring an average accuracy of 55%.
Key findings:
- Tennessee is the nation's best predictor, followed by North Carolina in second place, and Alabama and New York tied for third.
- 57% of Americans rely on their head (logic, stats) when predicting the future, while 43% mostly go with their gut.
- Despite all these prediction skills, nearly 2 out of 5 Americans would not want to look into the future if they could.
- Of those who would want a glimpse, most people want to know how much money they will ever make.
More than 1 in 3 respondents (37%) believe they are a better predictor than the average American, according to our study. But is that self-confidence justified? TradeHandle.com challenged 2,500 people across the country to make a series of sports-related predictions, such as:
- Will the USMNT win its opening World Cup match against Paraguay on June 12th?
- Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship title?
- Which team will win the 2026 Stanley Cup?
- Which teams will be leading the MLB divisions at midnight ET on Sunday, June 7th?
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo surpass 667 million Instagram followers by the kickoff of the World Cup opening match on June 11th?
Now that the results are in, it’s time to settle the score and answer the question once and for all: Who is America’s best predictor?
Tennessee crowned America’s best predictor
Tennesseans seem to have a better internal crystal ball than the rest of the country. Out of all predictions, they have the highest percentage of correct predictions, an average of 55%. That is significantly higher than the national average of 45%. North Carolina also has a prediction gene: it averaged a score of 54%, good for the second spot. Alabama and New York complete the top 3, with an accuracy rate of 53%. As prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue to attract attention, this research reveals which states appear to have the sharpest instincts when it comes to forecasting.
Still, different states have their own expertise. Iowa scores the highest prediction accuracy when it comes to the USMNT, followed by Alabama and Louisiana. New York cannot only call itself the NBA champion this year, but also score the highest on basketball predictions. North Carolina ranks first for the NHL, while Ohio scores the highest prediction accuracy for the MLB, and Colorado has the best outcome on the question about Cristiano Ronaldo’s Instagram follower count.
Americans rely most on experts for predictions
Regarding what people mainly base predictions on, 57% of Americans say they use logic and statistics, while the other 43% follow their gut. Additionally, our survey shows that 61% have the most trust in (news) analysts and experts to make a solid prediction. 29% base it on the opinions and predictions of large (online) communities, while 10% of Americans turn to AI to make predictions.
Would you want to predict your own future if you could? 2 in 5 Americans say they’d rather not
At a time when prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular, many people hope to get an accurate glimpse into the future. Especially when it comes to sports. But what if it comes to our own future? We asked our respondents a hypothetical question: if you were able to see your own future with 100% accuracy, would you take a look? The largest share, 39%, would not want to know what their future looks like. A slightly smaller percentage, 36%, would want to know everything, while nearly 1 in 4 respondents would exclusively want to know the positive things their future holds. Only 2% said they would only want to know the negative points.
If you could know just one accurate prediction about the future, what would it be? The highest percentage (18%) would prefer to know how rich they will eventually become. Family follows in second place: 17% would want to know if their family members will live a happy life, while 16% would prefer to know exactly how old they will get. Interestingly, sports lands in eighth place: 5% of respondents would, above all else, love to know if their favorite team will ever win a championship.
Methodology
For the America’s Best Predictors study, TradeHandle.com surveyed 2,500 people across the US between May 28 and May 31, 2026. Respondents were asked to make a series of sports-related predictions about upcoming events based on the following questions:
- Will the USMNT win its opening World Cup match against Paraguay on June 12th?
- Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship title?
- Which team will win the 2026 Stanley Cup?
- Which teams will be leading the MLB divisions at midnight ET on Sunday, June 7th?
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo surpass 667 million Instagram followers by the kickoff of the World Cup opening match on June 11th?
These predictions were tracked and checked for accuracy after the sporting events took place. This data was used to rank the states from highest to lowest prediction accuracy, looking at both the individual questions and the overall average.
Respondents were also asked whether they would want to look into the future if they had the ability to see their own future with 100% accuracy, which was followed by a question about what single thing they would want to know most. Finally, respondents were asked to rate their own prediction skills against the average American, whether they rely more on their head or their gut, and who they trust most to make accurate predictions.
Of all respondents, 71% identified as male and 29% as female. The average age was 40.6 years.