Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg ordered his staff to create a platform for prediction markets, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.
The initial report claimed that Meta’s first launch will utilize a moneyless system, on which customers earn points for successful trades. However, the door was left open to adding real-money prediction markets later on.
No money… for now
According to early reporting, Meta’s to-be-built prediction market platform will be known internally as “Arena.” It could not co-exist with Meta’s social media platforms, although they could be used to funnel users to the prediction platform.
CNBC confirmed the New York Times’ report that “Arena” would utilize a points-based system.
“[Arena is] experimental but a top priority,” a source referenced in the original report claimed.
Meta’s social apps include Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. Those platforms reach approximately 3.6 billion people daily and nearly four billion users monthly, about 48 percent of the world’s population.
Prediction markets continue to grow
The soaring popularity of prediction markets make them an easy target to mix with social media platforms — especially without including financial risk.
Trading volume at prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket eclipsed $10 billion each during the last monthly period. The platforms also reported rolling trading volumes of $3.7 billion and $3.2 billion, respectively, over the last week.
The surge in trades was powered by the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the thrilling matches that ensued. Still, sports event contracts and prediction markets in general were seeing enormous growth even before the competition began.
Sportsbooks feel the effect
Established sports betting platforms aren’t in any imminent danger of losing their place in the market to prediction operators offering sports event contracts. But the pressure is mounting.
In light of Meta’s announcement of its planned development of a prediction platform, sports betting giants DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, owner of FanDuel Sportsbook, experienced stock price drops.
DraftKings fell more than two percent after the report went public, hitting a daily low. Flutter also declined nearly two percent after the report was released, although it still finished the day up 0.4 percent.
Meta’s unique opportunity
The concept of a moneyless prediction platform isn’t unique to Meta.
In January, the esteemed Forbes platform partnered with Axiom to launch ForbesPreddict, a gamified, moneyless platform that was designed to increase audience engagement by allowing readers to test their predictions without risking financial losses.
Meta’s enormous user base gives it a better opportunity than virtually anyone to introduce prediction platforms to new audiences. Once that connection is made and developed, transitioning to a cash-based system would naturally convert previously-moneyless users to true financial prediction customers.
Sports drive prediction markets
While prediction markets offer contracts in politics, finance, weather, culture, entertainment, and other industries, sports were the catalyst behind their explosion into the mainstream view.
Pew Research found that Sports accounted for 80 percent of total trading volume on Kalshi and 39 percent on Polymarket during the period from July 2024 to March 2026. The only recent shift away from sports occurred in October and November 2024, around the time of the U.S. Presidential Election. Kalshi also did not offer sports event contracts at this time.
Sports are also on the cusp of becoming a mainstay for prediction operators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently proposed a new series of rules, which included the elimination of ambiguity and official approval of sports event contracts.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Giving an organization like Meta, with its enormous global user base, a prediction platform would almost inevitably make it one of the industry’s top players, assuming it eventually transitions to a cash-based system. ESPN attempted to capitalize on its popularity when it attempted a similar transition with the ESPN Bet Sportsbook, but it also did not seem to prioritize converting its customers. A proper approach by Meta could reset the prediction industry.