Brendan Sorsby won't be playing in the NFL in 2026 and prediction markets have taken notice. The NFL rejected Sorsby's application for the supplemental draft, stating that earning a spot in the league is a privilege and that he will have to wait until the 2027 NFL Draft.
The NFL has maintained a zero tolerance policy when it comes to gambling, and it reinforced that stance once again with its ruling on Sorsby.
Prediction market traders quickly took notice of the ruling, and markets are already projecting where Sorsby could land once he eventually reaches the NFL.
Sorsby's Gambling Issue
Sorsby reportedly wagered more than $90,000 over four years while he was in college. His betting activity ranged from events such as the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest to Turkish soccer matches. However, the most significant issue was that he also placed bets involving his own team.
While serving as a backup quarterback at Indiana, Sorsby said he bet on his team because he wanted to feel more connected to his teammates. The Hoosiers went 4-12 both straight up and against the spread during that period, so Sorsby claimed he did not profit from those wagers.
However, he also reportedly bet on a first half team total under and took the starting quarterback's passing yards under in one game. As a result, regulators determined that he had effectively wagered against his own team through player and game props.
Sorsby's eligibility became a major storyline that dragged on for months. After the Big 12 reportedly threatened to keep Texas Tech out of postseason competition, the involved parties ultimately agreed to part ways.
Prediction markets became extremely active once the news broke. Kalshi posted a market on Sorsby's next team, and it has already generated more than $152,000 in trading volume.
At the time, many believed Sorsby would enter the supplemental draft. However, the NFL's decision eliminated that possibility. Even so, traders can still speculate on where he will eventually land through prediction markets such as Kalshi.
Sorsby's Potential Destinations
According to current Kalshi probabilities, there are two teams that stand out as realistic landing spots for Sorsby. Of course, plenty can change before the 2027 NFL Draft, and his stock could rise or fall depending on how teams evaluate him after a full season away from football.
The Kansas City Chiefs currently give traders one of the more intriguing possibilities. Sorsby is trading at roughly 8% to eventually become a member of the Chiefs, who may begin thinking about a succession plan for Patrick Mahomes in the coming years.
The Cleveland Browns are also trading around 8%, and that outcome would not be surprising either. Cleveland has consistently invested resources in the quarterback position and could still be searching for a long term answer under center.
Sorsby enjoyed a productive 2025 season at Cincinnati and was reportedly set to earn more than $6 million after transferring to Texas Tech. As a junior with the Bearcats, he threw for 2,800 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.
He also posted an 81.5 QBR, which ranked 11th nationally and helped establish him as a legitimate NFL prospect before his gambling controversy derailed his career trajectory.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
If you're looking to trade on Sorsby's next team, understand that it is a long term position with significant uncertainty. His NFL destination will not be known until at least the 2027 NFL Draft, assuming a team is willing to take a chance on him.
Sorsby possesses talent that many evaluators believed could make him a Day 2 draft pick. Because of that, there is a strong chance that an NFL team will eventually give him an opportunity.
Still, gambling violations are not something organizations want associated with a franchise quarterback. Sorsby will need to prove that he has learned from the situation and regained the trust of NFL decision makers.