Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not expected to win reelection, according to political prediction markets.
Leading operators Polymarket and Kalshi both have Netanyahu second to former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot. Netanyahu has been in office since the end of 2022, and had previous tenures from 2009-21 and 1996-99.
Netanyahu trails in prediction markets
Netanyahu, with nearly 20 years of experience, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. His ongoing tenure has been divisive on a global scale, as Israel has found itself in armed international and regional conflicts involving Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.
Israel does not impose term limits, but requires the prime minister elections to be held every four years. The next election will occur on Oct. 27.
Market data from Kalshi, current at the time of writing, shows that Netanyahu only has a 32% chance of retaining his seat in office. Eisenkot, who was elected to the Knesset after he joined the National Unity alliance in 2022, has a 34% chance.
Kalshi’s top competitor, Polymarket, also has Eisenkot at a slight advantage over Netanyahu. The former’s 40% trumps the latter’s 36%, although it’s noteworthy that both candidates have a higher probability at Polymarket than they do at Kalshi.
Naftali Bennett, who was Israel’s prime minister for just over one year from June 2021 through June 2022, is third in likelihood at both platforms. Kalshi gave him a 22% probability, while Polymarket only believes there’s a 14% chance of him winning the election.
Israel PM market movement
Kalshi’s trading logs show strong movement in the Israeli Prime Minister political prediction market.
One month ago, Bennett was the public favorite at 42%. Netanyahu was close behind at 36%, while Eisenkot, the current leader, only had a 13% likelihood.
As of one week ago, the standings had flipped on their head. Eisenkot took the lead with a 35% probability, while Netanyahu and Bennett were nearly inseparable at 29% and 27%, respectively.
Within just the last seven days, Eisenkot climbed as high as 40% and as low as 35%.
Netanyahu was more volatile, hitting extremes of 36% and 23%.
Bennett was the only one who remained relatively flat until Wednesday, dropping from a high of 27% to 24%.
The final contender
Only one other candidate, Avidgor Lieberman, has maintained a probability greater than 1.
The Soviet-born politician previously served twice as the Deputy Prime Minister of Israel for a total of five years, and has held a slew of positions in Israel. He also refused to join Netanyahu’s coalition in 2019 after stating his opposition to forming alliances with religious parties.
Lieberman had an 8% chance of winning the election a month ago. He gained some steam a couple of weeks ago and climbed to 13%, where he has remained in the time since.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
A recent Channel 12 (Israel) poll found that the majority of Israelis believed that Netanyahu shouldn’t run for prime minister, with 59% of respondents stating that he should leave politics, and only 33% saying he should seek reelection. Eisenkot has risen in popularity because of his military background and perceived honesty. He even created his own political party, Yashar!, which was centered on morality and a lack of institutional corruption.