The World Cup is starting to feel a lot less theoretical now. Mexico, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, Morocco, South Africa, Argentina, France, Colombia, Germany, and the United States are already through. Others are hanging on by goal difference, third-place math, or one last result. Thursday gives us another six-match slate, and it is a good one from a prediction market perspective.
The United States and Germany have already won their groups, which makes lineup motivation a major topic of discussion. The Netherlands and the Ivory Coast enter as heavy favorites. Japan and Sweden might be the best actual soccer match of the day. Paraguay and Australia could turn into one of those weird final-group games where both sides know a draw may be enough.
Worth Reading: $12.2 Million Traded in USA vs. Türkiye Prediction Markets Leading Up to Kick-Off
Ecuador vs Germany Prediction
Germany has already won Group E, but the market still has Germany at around 65% to beat Ecuador. That says a lot about how strong traders think this team is right now. This is also a tricky spot to read because Germany does not really need anything from this match. Julian Nagelsmann can rotate, protect players, and still probably field a lineup favored against most teams in the tournament.
Ecuador is the desperate side. It needs a win to feel good about its knockout chances, and it still has not scored in this World Cup despite creating chances. That is what makes this frustrating. Ecuador has not been hopeless. It has not finished anything. I think Ecuador finally gets on the board, but Germany still has too much depth to lose this.
Trade Handle Pick: Germany 2, Ecuador 1
Ecuador vs Germany: How To Watch
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Curacao vs Ivory Coast Prediction
Curacao has already had a pretty incredible World Cup just by getting here and then taking a point from Ecuador. That 0-0 draw gave it a real story and kept the dream alive. The problem is that the market is not buying the fairytale continuation. Ivory Coast is trading around 84% to win, while Curacao is sitting near 6%. That is one of the biggest gaps on the board.
It makes sense. Ivory Coast has looked solid through two matches, beating Ecuador and then pushing Germany before losing late. A draw would be enough for the Elephants to advance, but I do not think they will want to play this too passively. Curacao probably needs another Eloy Room miracle to keep this close. Maybe it gets one for half. I just do not think it lasts 90 minutes.
Trade Handle Pick: Ivory Coast 3, Curacao 0
Curacao vs Ivory Coast: How To Watch
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Universo
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Japan vs Sweden Prediction
This is the match I am most interested in today. Japan is trading at around 53% to win, Sweden at around 22%, and the draw at around 27%. That feels about right, but it also shows the market has not completely given up on Sweden despite the 5-1 loss to the Netherlands. Japan has been excellent.
The draw with the Netherlands looks better now, and the 4-0 win over Tunisia was one of the better performances of the group stage. Even with injuries, Japan looks organized, fast, and dangerous in transition. Sweden is harder to figure out. It scored five against Tunisia and then gave up five against the Netherlands.
The attacking talent is real, especially with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, but the defensive problems are real, too. If Japan gets space, it can punish this Swedish back line. I think the Samurai Blue will finish the group stage with another strong result.
Trade Handle Pick: Japan 3, Sweden 1
Japan vs Sweden: How To Watch
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Universo
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Tunisia vs. Netherlands Prediction
This is the most lopsided market of the day. The Netherlands is trading around 90% to win, while Tunisia is down around 4%. There is not much mystery here. Tunisia has been one of the weakest teams in the tournament and has already been eliminated. The Netherlands, meanwhile, still has something to play for because first place in Group F could come down to goal difference.
That matters. This is not just a "get three points and move on" spot. If Japan beats Sweden, the Dutch may need goals to stay ahead or keep pace in the group-winner race. The Netherlands already put five past Sweden. Against Tunisia, it is hard not to see another comfortable win.
Trade Handle Pick: Netherlands 4, Tunisia 0
Tunisia vs Netherlands: How To Watch
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Paraguay vs Australia Prediction
This might be the weirdest market of the day. Paraguay has around 35% to win. Australia is around 24%. The draw is the favorite outcome at roughly 43%. When the draw is priced that high, the market is basically telling you the game state matters more than the team strength.
That makes sense here. Australia and Paraguay are both sitting on three points. The United States has already won the group. Turkey has been eliminated. A draw likely sends Australia through in second and leaves Paraguay in strong shape as a third-place team.
So the question is simple: how badly does either team want to take risks? Paraguay will be without Miguel Almirón, which hurts its ability to create. Australia is comfortable playing in a cautious, defensive shape anyway. This feels like one of those final group-stage matches where everyone says they are going for the win, and then the first 25 minutes tell you they are not.
Trade Handle Pick: Paraguay 0, Australia 0
Paraguay vs Australia: How To Watch
Kickoff: 10:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Universo
Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Turkey vs. United States Prediction
The United States has already won Group D, and Turkey has already been eliminated. That makes this match less important in the standings, but still pretty interesting from a market perspective. The United States is trading at around 54% to win, while Turkey sits at around 25%.
That is not as heavy as it might have been if the U.S. needed the result, and the reason is obvious. Mauricio Pochettino can rotate. Christian Pulisic may be protected. Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards are all players the U.S. probably does not want suspended or banged up before the Round of 32.
Still, this is a chance for the rest of the roster to show what they can do. Gio Reyna, Haji Wright, Sebastian Berhalter, Alex Zendejas, and others could all have a real incentive to push for a bigger role. Turkey has enough talent to make this annoying, but it has been one of the tournament's more disappointing teams. With nothing left to play for and no goals through two matches, it is hard to trust.
Trade Handle Pick: United States 2, Turkey 1
Turkey vs. United States: How To Watch
Kickoff: 10:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Thursday is a reminder that late group-stage markets are not just about who is better. Germany is better than Ecuador, but Germany does not need the result. The United States is better than Turkey, but the U.S. has already won the group. Paraguay and Australia may both be fine with a draw. The Netherlands and Japan may both care about goal difference. Ivory Coast only needs a draw but has a clear talent edge over Curacao.
That is what makes this slate interesting. The pricing isn't just a reaction to talent. It is reacting to motivation, group math, likely rotation, and the difference between needing a win and simply needing to avoid disaster.
The markets I find most interesting today are Paraguay vs. Australia and Turkey vs. the United States. Paraguay-Australia is basically a motivation test, and the draw price tells you traders know it. USA-Turkey is a depth test for the Americans and a good reminder that a team can be clearly better even when not playing its strongest lineup.
From a knockout-market perspective, Japan and the Netherlands may be the two teams most likely to change perceptions today. If either wins big, traders may start treating Group F as more dangerous than it looked a week ago.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Wednesday was the first day when entire groups were announced, and it brought major movement in the Round of 32 picture.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3, Qatar 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina kept its tournament alive and likely put itself in position to advance as one of the best third-place teams. Qatar was eliminated.
Switzerland 2, Canada 1
Switzerland beat Canada to win Group B. Canada still advanced as the runner-up, but missed the chance to secure first place on home soil.
Morocco 4, Haiti 2
Morocco survived a scare from Haiti and came back to win 4-2. The Atlas Lions advanced, but Brazil still finished ahead of them in Group C.
Brazil 3, Scotland 0
Vinícius Júnior scored twice as Brazil won Group C with a convincing victory. Scotland finished third and will need help to advance.
Mexico 3, Czechia 0
Mexico finished a perfect group stage with three wins from three matches. Czechia was eliminated.
South Africa 1, South Korea 0
South Africa pulled off one of the biggest results of the tournament, beating South Korea to reach the knockout rounds for the first time.