The group stage is over, and now the World Cup gets much less forgiving. Canada already survived the first Round of 32 match with a late 1-0 win over South Africa. Now, Monday brings three more knockout games, and this is where the prediction market angle gets a lot more interesting.
There are no more group-stage incentives, no more third-place math, and no more "a draw is fine" situations. Brazil faces a dangerous Japan team, Germany gets Paraguay, and the Netherlands meets Morocco in one of the best Round of 32 matchups on the board.
Brazil vs Japan Prediction
This is a brutal draw for Japan. The Samurai Blue were one of the best teams in Group F and went unbeaten, but the reward is Brazil in the Round of 32. That is rough. Brazil is favored, but it doesn't feel like a soft favorite. Japan has enough pace, organization, and attacking confidence to make Brazil uncomfortable.
The market and sportsbook pricing both lean toward Brazil, but the matchup is not as simple as "Brazil is Brazil." The big question is whether Japan can press without getting punished. Brazil has the technical quality to break through pressure, and if Vinicius Junior gets space, this can turn quickly. Matheus Cunha has also been excellent, and Brazil looks to be starting to find a better rhythm after the opening draw with Morocco.
Japan can absolutely make this interesting. I just think Brazil has too many ways to create the one or two moments that decide knockout games.
Trade Handle Pick: Brazil 2, Japan 1
Brazil vs Japan: How To Watch
Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Germany vs Paraguay Prediction
Germany is in a weird spot. It won Group E, scored 10 goals in the group stage, and still somehow enters the knockout rounds with a few questions after losing to Ecuador. That loss probably does not matter much because Germany had already won the group, but it did take a little shine off what had been a strong start.
Paraguay is not built to run with Germany. It got through as a third-place team, defended well enough, and did what it needed to do. That is nothing. The problem is that Paraguay has offered very little going forward, and that is a dangerous way to live against Germany.
The market has Germany as a clear favorite, and I think that is right. Paraguay's best path is to drag this into a low-event game and hope Germany gets frustrated. The longer it stays scoreless, the more interesting it gets. Still, Germany should have enough control and attacking quality to break through.
Trade Handle Pick: Germany 2, Paraguay 0
Germany vs Paraguay: How To Watch
Kickoff: 4:30 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Netherlands vs Morocco Prediction
This is the match of the day. Netherlands won Group F. Morocco finished second in Group C after taking points from Brazil and then handling business against Scotland and Haiti. Neither team will look at this as a friendly Round of 32 draw. The market is also telling us this is close. Netherlands is a slight favorite, but not by much. That feels right.
The Dutch have looked more dangerous since Brian Brobbey entered the lineup, and they have the midfield quality to control long stretches of the game. But Morocco is no longer some feel-good underdog. This is a real team with a real midfield, real wide threats, and enough defensive structure to frustrate anyone.
The key matchup might be Morocco's ability to handle the Dutch midfield without getting pinned too deep. If Morocco can get Brahim Diaz, Achraf Hakimi, and Ismael Saibari into dangerous spots, this could easily go the other way. I would not be surprised if this needs extra time or penalties. For the pick, I'll lean toward Morocco in a tight one.
Trade Handle Pick: Morocco 2, Netherlands 1
Netherlands vs Morocco: How To Watch
Kickoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The knockout stage changes everything. During the group stage, traders had to think about motivation, goal difference, rest, rotation, and whether a draw was useful. Now it is much cleaner. Win and move on. Lose and go home.
Brazil vs Japan is the kind of match where the favorite is obvious, but the underdog is good enough to make traders nervous. Germany vs Paraguay feels more straightforward, but Germany's market will probably react quickly if Paraguay keeps it tight early. Netherlands vs Morocco is the best trading match of the day because the gap between the teams feels small.
The biggest market question is probably how much weight to put on group-stage form. Brazil and Germany won their groups, but neither looked perfect. Morocco and Japan both looked dangerous despite finishing second. The Netherlands may have the best combination of form and path, but Morocco is a tough reward for winning a group. By the end of Monday, Canada will know its Round of 16 opponent, and three more major teams will either move one step closer to the title or head home much earlier than expected.
Weekend World Cup Scores
Sunday, June 28
Canada 1, South Africa 0
Canada became the first team to reach the Round of 16 after Stephen Eustaquio scored in second-half stoppage time. South Africa's historic run ended heartbreakingly.
Saturday, June 27
Croatia 2, Ghana 1
Croatia edged Ghana to reach the knockout rounds, with Nikola Vlašić scoring the late winner.
England 2, Panama 0
Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane scored as England won Group L and moved into the Round of 32.
Colombia 0, Portugal 0
Colombia won Group K after holding Portugal to a scoreless draw. Portugal still advanced but finished second.
DR Congo 3, Uzbekistan 1
DR Congo rallied to seal a historic first knockout-round spot. Yoane Wissa scored twice in the second half.
Algeria 3, Austria 3
Algeria and Austria played one of the wildest matches of the group stage, and the draw sent both through while eliminating Iran from third-place contention.
Argentina 3, Jordan 1
Argentina completed a perfect group stage, with Lionel Messi scoring again and the defending champions winning Group J.
Friday, June 26
France 4, Norway 1
Ousmane Dembele scored a first-half hat trick as France finished a perfect group stage and won Group I.
Senegal 5, Iraq 0
Senegal gave itself a strong third-place case with a dominant win over 10-man Iraq.
Cape Verde 0, Saudi Arabia 0
Cape Verde continued its dream run, finishing second in Group H and setting up a Round of 32 match against Argentina.
Spain 1, Uruguay 0
Spain won Group H with a narrow win over Uruguay. Uruguay's disappointing tournament ended without a victory.
Egypt 1, Iran 1
Egypt advanced past the group stage for the first time, while Iran's draw was not enough.
Belgium 5, New Zealand 1
Belgium finally found its attack, routing New Zealand to win Group G.