Andrea “Kimi” Antonelli is a strong but declining favorite in F1 prediction markets after his Mercedes teammate and British driver, George Russell, won the Austrian Grand Prix.
With more than $180 million in contract purchases, Polymarket’s latest market data shows that Antonelli has a 53% chance of winning the Drivers’ Championship, the award given to the best individual driver in a racing season. Russell remains second, although by a smaller margin.
Russell closes the gap
Amid the excitement of the World Cup, the ongoing F1 season is providing just as much drama.
Antonelli and Russell are responsible for seven wins in eight F1 events this season. Antonelli claimed five of those, while Russell took the season-opening Australian Grand Prix and last Sunday’s trip to Austria.
Antonelli, only 19 years old, led the Drivers’ Standings with 156 points entering the weekend. Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton was second with 115 points, and Russell was third with 106.
Polymarket users as of midnight on Sunday morning believed that Antonelli had a 57% chance of winning the Drivers’ Championship. Hamilton had a minuscule lead over Russell in second, with the former teammates boasting 17.3% and 17% probabilities, respectively. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen had a 3% chance.
Sunday’s results didn’t threaten Antonelli’s lead, but they brought Russell closer to the front. He has a 23% likelihood of winning the Championship at the time of writing, while Antonelli is at 53%.
The 30% difference in probability between them is substantially lower than the 40% gulf that existed between them before the Austria event.
Recovering from setbacks
Russell was as high as a 61% favorite in the Drivers’ Championship on March 14, a day before the second Grand Prix of the season. He fell steadily since then, although his current 23% value is the highest since he was at 26% on June 14.
Both Mercedes drivers have already logged DNFs this season. Russell’s was caused by a battery failure in the Canadian Grand Prix, while Antonelli’s car experienced an electrical shutdown with four laps remaining in the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix.
Antonelli holds down the top spot
Antonelli still has a greater chance of winning the Drivers’ Championship than anyone else in the field. However, his chances of fulfilling his dreams are dropping.
Data from Polymarket's prediction markets shows that, after peaking at 72% on June 7, Antonelli has been dropping. The Barcelona-Catalunya DNF dropped him from 67% to 59% practically overnight, and he dropped as low as 52% after Russell won the Austrian Grand Prix.
Antonelli has been the most consistent driver this season. He won five Grands Prix and finished on the podium in all seven races he completed.
Who else is in contention?
Hamilton and Verstappen are the only other drivers who have more than a 1% chance of winning the Championship, according to Polymarket.
Hamilton, who was P5 in Austria, is at 12%. Verstappen, P2 in Austria, has a 5% chance.
Both men are legendary figures in the sport. Hamilton won his first race with Ferrari at Barcelona-Catalunya, while Verstappen’s P2 finish on Sunday was only his second podium in 2026. He still hasn’t won a race amid a well-documented battle with his car.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Antonelli has been remarkably steady, although he is still only 19. Russell, a more seasoned 28 years old, is driving with confidence but has never finished better than fourth in the Drivers’. Mechanical issues could ultimately decide the Championship if they persist, but there are still 14 races left for Russell to close the 40-point gap on his teammate.