Tuesday gave us the most normal knockout day so far. Norway survived the Ivory Coast behind another late Erling Haaland goal. France looked like a true title favorite in a 3-0 win over Sweden. Mexico handled Ecuador and kept its dream home World Cup run alive. Wednesday brings one of the biggest days of the Round of 32, especially with a USA nightcap.
England opens the day against DR Congo, and Belgium gets a dangerous Senegal team. The markets see England and the United States as clear favorites to advance. Belgium is favored too, but that one feels much more fragile. If there is an upset on Wednesday, Senegal over Belgium is the one that makes the most sense when considering value.
England vs DR Congo Prediction
England is probably going to make this harder than it needs to be.
That has kind of been the story since the opening win over Croatia. The talent is obvious. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, and the rest of this group should be too much for most teams. But England has also had long stretches where it looks slow, tight, and a little too comfortable letting games turn awkward.
That is what makes DR Congo interesting. The Leopards already held Portugal, pushed Colombia, and then came from behind to beat Uzbekistan. They are physical, direct, and dangerous enough on the counter to make England sweat if this stays close. The market has England around 87% to advance, which is a big number. I get it. England has more match-winners, and in a knockout match, that usually matters. Still, I do not think this is a clean, easy game.
Trade Handle Pick: England 2, DR Congo 0
England vs DR Congo: How To Watch
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Belgium vs Senegal Prediction
This is my upset pick of the day.
Belgium is favored to advance at around 59%, considering their form, that feels a little generous. The 5-1 win over New Zealand cleaned up the group-stage resume, but it did not erase the earlier draws against Egypt and Iran. Senegal is possibly the best opponent Belgium has played in the World Cup so far.
Senegal has speed, power, and enough attacking quality to punish a Belgium team that can still look old and slow in the wrong spots. Ismaila Sarr has been excellent, Nicolas Jackson gives them a threat running channels, and Sadio Mane still has enough quality to decide a knockout match. The case for Belgium is still obvious. Kevin De Bruyne can create something out of nothing.
Jeremy Doku can wreck a game if he gets space. Leandro Trossard is dangerous. But I do not fully trust Belgium to control this for 90 minutes, and I really do not trust it if the game gets stretched. This feels like the kind of match where the market is pricing Belgium's name more than Belgium's form. I'll take Senegal to pull off the upset.
Trade Handle Pick: Senegal 2, Belgium 1
Belgium vs Senegal: How To Watch
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET
TV: FS1, Telemundo
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction
This is the United States' biggest match of the tournament so far.
The loss to Türkiye does not really bother me much. The U.S. had already won the group, rotated the lineup, and was clearly thinking about this match. The more important version of this team is the one that beat Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0.
The market has the United States around 83% to advance, and that feels right. The U.S. has the better roster, the home-field edge, and the athleticism to make Bosnia uncomfortable. Christian Pulisic should be back in the starting lineup, and that matters a lot. The U.S. looked good without needing him to carry everything, but this is the kind of match where having your best attacker back changes the entire feel.
Bosnia is not harmless. Edin Dzeko gives it experience, and set pieces are a real concern. Bosnia has already shown it can create danger from corners and dead-ball situations, and that is probably the biggest path to making this scary for the U.S. Still, I think the Americans have too much pace and too many ways to attack. If the U.S. scores first, Bosnia will have to open up, and that is where this can get away from them.
Trade Handle Pick: United States 3, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: How To Watch
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo
Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Wednesday is a good reminder that knockout markets are not only about who is better. England is the strongest favorite on the board, but DR Congo has the exact profile that can make a favorite uncomfortable: physicality, counterattacking, and nothing to lose. The U.S. is also a heavy favorite, but Bosnia's set-piece threat gives the underdog at least one clear path into the game.
The best market of the day is Belgium vs Senegal. Belgium is favored, but not by a huge margin, and I think the price is telling us traders are not totally sold on it either. A 59% advance price is not the same as "safe." It is more like the market saying Belgium is slightly more likely, but this could flip at any time.
That is where I see the upset. Senegal has already survived the hardest group path of the teams playing Wednesday, and its speed against Belgium's back line could be the difference. The knockout stage has already sent Germany and the Netherlands home. Belgium could be next.
Yesterday's World Cup Scores
Tuesday, June 30
Norway 2, Ivory Coast 1
Norway reached the Round of 16 after Erling Haaland scored the winner in the 86th minute. Antonio Nusa opened the scoring before Amad Diallo equalized for Ivory Coast.
France 3, Sweden 0
Kylian Mbappé scored twice, and Bradley Barcola added another as France comfortably moved into the Round of 16. Les Bleus continue to look like one of the strongest teams in the tournament.
Mexico 2, Ecuador 0
Mexico kept its home World Cup dream alive with a convincing knockout win over Ecuador. Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez scored in the first half, and El Tri will now face either England or DR Congo in the Round of 16.