Kalshi traders suffered huge losses in 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets on Tuesday at the hands of Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and one of the three host nations.
The third day of the Knockout saw all three favored teams — Norway, France, and Mexico — book their tickets in the Round of 16. But while it may have been business as usual on the pitch, the same couldn’t be said for traders at the country’s largest prediction platform.
Haaland fires Norway into the next round
Leading prediction operator Kalshi confirmed on its Kalshi FC X (Twitter) page that it processed several five- and six-figure contract purchases before the day’s matches.
One of those was a $48,000 prediction that Haaland, who had 59 goals in 52 professional international appearances, would not find the back of the net against the Ivory Coast. The user’s shares were purchased at a 48% probability and stood to pay $100,000 if they aged as intended.
Haaland ruthlessly ensured that the user walked away empty-handed, adding his name to the scoring sheet with a game-winning tap-in in the 86th minute. The goal was his fifth of the tournament and continued his streak of scoring at least once in all three World Cup matches in which he featured.
Despite his excellent goal-scoring record, Haaland only has a 4% chance of winning the Golden Boot, according to the latest data from Kalshi’s prediction markets. Lionel Messi (46%) is in the lead, followed by Mbappé (44%), who also proved to be a villain for a Kalshi user on Tuesday.
Mbappé continues to be inevitable
About one hour before France kicked off against Sweden, Kalshi FC posted that its prediction platform processed a $42,000 trade on Mbappé not to score a goal. The contracts were purchased at a 42% chance and would pay $100,000 if the prediction was proven correct.
The contracts were already dead by halftime after Mbappé buried a shot in the net in the 45th minute. To leave no doubt, the 27-year-old doubled back with a 74th-minute strike that put him one goal behind Messi in the World Cup’s all-time goal-scoring leaderboard with 18 in 18 matches. France also won the match, 3-0.
Mbappé was the pre-tournament Golden Boot favorite. He has the lead at the time of writing with six goals and two assists, while Messi has six goals and no assists. Messi and Argentina still have a game in hand, which they will play against Cape Verde on Friday.
A $1 million opportunity
The most punishing of Tuesday’s contract losses occurred in the final match of the day, when Mexico hosted Ecuador in the Round of 32.
While the Mexicans were strong favorites and were playing in front of their home fans in Mexico City, a Kalshi trader staked $360,000 that they would lose the match. The user would’ve won $1 million if the underdogs had pulled off an upset.
That proved to be a regrettable decision, as Mexico won 2-0 with early goals in the 22nd and 31 minutes. Ecuador was forced to chase the game in the second half and eventually saw defender Piero Hincapié sent off in the fifth minute of stoppage time for covering his mouth when making a comment to a Mexican opponent.
Mexico will go up against the winner of England and DR Congo on Sunday.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Market opportunities are one thing, but siding against two of the most in-form players in the world and a spirited team playing in front of its home fans was risky. The World Cup has largely been defined by stars up to this point, which is a trend that could potentially help prepare traders for what is to come as the Knockout continues.