The USA has just below a one-fourth chance of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal, according to the latest data from Kalshi’s prediction markets.
Kalshi’s market data is a real-time reflection of customer sentiment, which remains high as the Stars and Stripes took down Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday, 2-0. The win came in spite of a red card for star striker Folarin Balogun, who will miss the Round of 16 matchup with Belgium due to suspension.
USA's chances of going on a run
Kalshi’s prediction markets include single-game results and a plethora of future outcomes. One of the available futures markets is the USA’s stage of elimination, which includes odds for every remaining option, including winning the final.
Data that is current at the time of writing shows the following breakdown for each outcome:
- Round of 16: 46% ($.47)
- Quarterfinals: 34% ($.34)
- Semifinals: 14% ($.13)
- Outright winner: 5% ($.04)
- Runner-up: 4% ($.04)
The most likely outcome is for the USA to lose against Belgium in the Round of 16. There’s also about a one-third chance they lose in the quarterfinals in a matchup that could include any of Portugal, Croatia, Spain or Austria.
Winning that match would send the Red, White, and Blue into the semifinals, where they could face any of Paraguay, France, Canada, or Morocco. France is the favorite to win the competition at 35%.
Interestingly, Kalshi users believe that the U.S. would be more likely to win the final than to lose it. Of all possible opponents they could face, Argentina (19%), England (8%), and Brazil (7%) are the most likely.
Setting up to face Belgium
Before the USA can go on a run deep into the tournament, it will need to get past Belgium. That will be made much more difficult by the absence of Balogun, who scored three times at the tournament and is the only American with more than one goal.
The 24-year-old was sent off and subsequently suspended in the 64th minute of Wednesday’s match. USA vs. Belgium prediction markets weren’t available to show the before-and-after impact of the red card, although it can be assured that the U.S. would be a larger favorite with its talisman prepared for action.
The U.S. played well even after Balogun was removed from play. It withstood Bosnia-Herzegovina’s attack and added a decisive second goal on a Malik Tillman free kick in the 82nd minute.
Belgium barely squeaked into the Round of 16 itself. After being down 2-0 for over half an hour, Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans combined to score within three minutes of each other in the 86th and 89th minutes, sending the game to extra time.
Five minutes into stoppage time after the full 120 minutes, Tielemans eased a game-winning penalty kick into the top right corner of the net. Had he missed, or had the penalty not been given, the match almost assuredly would’ve ended in a penalty shootout.
The USA last met Belgium at the World Cup in 2014. American goalkeeper Tim Howard set an all-time World Cup record during that match with 16 saves, but Belgium still won, 2-1.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Belgium should consider itself lucky to have reached the Round of 16. Losing Balogun will be a major blow, since he is the one who has provided most of the goals, but the U.S. has been much better than Belgium in other areas of the pitch, specifically, the midfield. Belgium has the technical advantage if the game goes to penalties, but the Americans should be better during regular play.