FIFA World Cup prediction markets are setting up for another day of frenzied action, just in time to celebrate the Fourth of July weekend.
Saturday’s two-match schedule will see Canada, one of three North American hosts, face Morocco, the reigning fourth-place finishers at the 2022 World Cup. Paraguay will also take on tournament favorites France for the right to play the winner of the earlier match.
Before fireworks can be launched into the night air, they will be produced on the pitch. Here are our top World Cup prediction market picks and predictions for today, July 4.
Canada vs. Morocco Prediction
Canada squeaked into the Round of 16 after Stephen Eustáquio netted a 92nd-minute winner against South Africa. The Canadians were easily the better team, but their inability to finish in front of the net was reminiscent of the same struggles they had encountered earlier in the tournament. Jesse Marsch’s squad wants to be aggressive and win the ball back high up the pitch, but they will be tested against a team as strong as Morocco.
The breakout team at the 2022 competition beat Netherlands in a penalty shootout after finishing 120 minutes tied 1-1. The only match they didn’t win at this competition was a 1-1 draw against Brazil, and with every win, they grow more and more confident. Their blend of speed and stamina, as well as their technical ability on the ball, make them extremely tough to track when they are attacking from all areas of the pitch.
Canada might have bitten off more than it can chew here. Although it has created chances, it also hasn’t been potent in front of goal, and inviting a high-octane match against Morocco could be a recipe for disaster.
Trade Handle Canada vs. Morocco prediction: Morocco to win by more than 1.5 goals ($.28 at Kalshi)
Canada vs. Morocco: How to Watch
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Paraguay vs. France Prediction
Paraguay shocked Germany in a penalty shootout in the Round of 16, aided by VAR ruling out a late would-be winning goal for its opponent. The team had been thoroughly outplayed up to that point and did not impress in the Group Stage, only scoring twice, but getting into the Knockout on the back of a 1-0 win against Türkiye and a goalless draw with Australia. The players can be proud of beating Germany, but they’re nowhere near the same quality as France.
What else can be said about the team with the best roster in the tournament and that has a 34% chance of winning the competition, according to World Cup prediction markets? Kylian Mbappé is firmly in the mix for the Golden Boot, and he’s surrounded by players who can create chances without ever getting out of second gear. France’s defense is only above average and much worse than its attack and midfield, but Paraguay hasn’t created more than 0.54 expected goals in a game in this tournament.
France is demonstrably better in every way, whether that be players, coaching, recent form, experience, or chemistry. They scored at least three goals in every game at the World Cup and can be expected to blow Paraguay off the field.
Trade Handle Paraguay vs. France prediction: Paraguay not to score over 0.5 goals ($.62 at Kalshi)
Paraguay vs. France: How to Watch
Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA