NBA prediction markets are in constant flux amid the ever-changing free agency period, and while many of the most important dominoes have already fallen, there are still several left.
Los Angeles Lakers’ megastar LeBron James is the obvious headliner of all available free agents. Leading prediction operators Kalshi and Polymarket are offering markets for him and his unsigned peers, as well as under-contract players who have reportedly drawn interest from other teams around the league.
Although nothing is guaranteed, these NBA prediction markets reflect traders’ beliefs and suggest the most likely outcomes for this period of player movement.
LeBron James favored to join the Cavaliers
It comes as no surprise that James’ next team drew more interest than any other player market. Approximately $76.4 million in contracts were bought and sold at the top two operators, both of which believe the Cleveland Cavaliers (58% at Kalshi, 59% at Polymarket) are in pole position. The Golden State Warriors (17% and 18%) and the Miami Heat (11% and 10%) rank second and third, respectively.
The Cavaliers’ surge to the top of the board came at the expense of the Warriors, who climbed as high as 50% at Kalshi and 70% at Polymarket. That large of a disparity is uncommon in prediction markets.
Both platforms reported spikes in the Philadelphia 76ers’ probability (20% and 23%) on Saturday, although that interest has cooled.
Jalen Duren sign-and-trade coming?
Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren is the only 2025-26 All-NBA member who ran out of a contract at the end of the recent season. The 22-year-old was expected to walk into an uncertain market, given he followed his breakout campaign (19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds) with an overwhelmingly disappointing playoff run (10.2 points, 8.5 rebounds).
Failure to make progress during initial conversations with Duren led to reports that the Pistons could execute a sign-and-trade with another team. Their front office emphasized their commitment to bringing him back, although a new deal has not been reached.
Kalshi users believe that there’s a 77% chance that Duren will remain with the regular-season champion Pistons. The Sacramento Kings (12%) are the only team with an expected chance greater than 1%.
Polymarket users also believe that the Pistons are the frontrunners at 78%, although they only have the Kings at a 4% probability.
Trey Murphy III is on the trade block
New Orleans Pelicans guard/forward Trey Murphy III still has three years remaining on his four-year, $112 million contract. He was frequently mentioned as a trade target for various teams, due to his impressive level of play and the Pelicans’ perennial bottom-feeder status.
Although the Pelicans reportedly recently dropped their asking price to three first-round picks, Kalshi believes that there’s a 34% chance that Murphy III won’t change uniforms before the upcoming season. It also has him down for a 21% chance to play for the Boston Celtics, after he was at 7% as recently as July 1.
The Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers both have 13% chances of acquiring Murphy III, according to Kalshi’s users. The Atlanta Hawks (6%) and the Los Angeles Clippers (5%) are the only other teams with probabilities exceeding 1%.
Kevin Durant expected to stay in Houston
Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant has one year remaining on his current deal. He has not been mentioned in trade talks as frequently as Murphy III, although Kalshi believes that a couple of teams could be after his services.
According to the latest market data, there is a 67% chance of Durant beginning the season with the Rockets. There is also a 19% chance of him joining the Pistons, a 16% chance of him going to the Miami Heat, and a 4% likelihood of him being traded to his hometown team, the Washington Wizards.