USA vs. Belgium World Cup prediction markets are drifting in favor of the Americans now that Folarin Balogun is in the clear for tonight’s match.
The Red, White, and Blue’s talisman received a rare suspended red card after a FIFA review led to the decision. Belgium “lawyered up” and appealed the decision, but was ultimately denied.
Balogun’s red card suspended
Balogun received a red card in the 64th minute of the USA’s 2-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32 last Wednesday. He had opened the scoring in the 45th minute, but was sent for an early shower after he planted his foot at about shin-level and dragged down on a defender’s leg, prompting VAR intervention.
The referee in charge of the match quickly called a review and determined that Balogun, who had seemingly inadvertently gotten his legs tangled up with his opponent, committed a dangerous foul.
World Cup rules stipulate that a player who receives a red card must miss the upcoming match. That presented a problem for Balogun, who was his team’s leading scorer at the competition.
A rare occurrence
The decision to suspend the red card was announced on Sunday afternoon. It was only the second time in World Cup history and the first time since 1962 such a decision was made.
President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that he requested that FIFA look into the decision, which he called a “horrible” call.
“All I did was ask for a review. I didn't say, you have to do this,” Trump said at a White House media briefing Monday. “This man is a smart, tough man, [FIFA President] Gianni Infantino. He's a smart, tough man, and his stock has gone through the roof because the job he has done has been great. I feel like we have to have all the best players on the field.”
Belgium coach Rudi Garcia did not take kindly to the red card suspension, saying that he thought it must have been April Fools’ Day.
“We're not defending the national team or federation,” Garcia said. “We are defending football.”
Prediction markets back USA
With Balogun set for action on Monday night, Kalshi’s prediction markets currently have the USA at a 54% chance. Belgium has a 46% chance.
The U.S. also has a 39% chance of winning in regulation, while Belgium has a 34% likelihood. There is a 28% probability of a regulation draw.
The USA took over as favorites at mid-day on Sunday after falling as low as 49%. They briefly dropped as low as 51% on Monday after Belgium was granted the right to appeal the suspension, but rebounded back to 54% in the hours after its appeal was denied.
Polymarket views the match similarly. Its users believe that the USA has a 53% chance to advance, while Belgium has a 47% chance.
A total of $62.7 million was traded in USA vs. Belgium prediction markets at both platforms. There are still two hours until kick-off at the time of writing.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Belgium has a bigger reputation in the world of soccer, but the U.S. played better during the tournament. Balogun’s availability is crucial, given he leads the team in scoring, but he is in for a tall task against the best goalkeeper in the world, Thibaut Courtois. The USA is sixth in probability of winning the World Cup (3.8%) at Kalshi and will only improve with a win on Monday.