More than $5 billion in contracts were traded in World Cup outright winner prediction markets at Kalshi and Polymarket leading up to the quarterfinal.
With only eight teams remaining in the competition, America’s leading prediction operators confirmed they processed just about $5.2 billion in contract purchases — a figure which grows with every passing minute. $4.1 billion came from Polymarket, and $1.1 from Kalshi.
Looking at the top contenders
Kalshi’s prediction markets include a live trading volume tracker, positioned directly below the chart of real-time probabilities. Since opening in May 2025, Kalshi users have risked exactly $1,084,345,409 predicting the winner of the FIFA 2026 World Cup, as of the time of writing.
France is the public pick to win the competition with a leading 33.9% chance. “Yes” contracts are selling for $.34 per share.
The French team’s probability is 1.8 times higher than that of the second-place contender and the defending champion, Argentina. Kalshi users believe that Lionel Messi’s squad has an 18.9% chance of winning the tournament, with “Yes” contracts trading for $.188.
The pre-tournament favorite, Spain, is only just behind in third with an 18.7% likelihood and contracts trading at $.187 each. “La Roja” had dropped as low as 10.5% in probability after opening at a leading 17.6%, but it is back above its pre-tournament level now that it is in the quarterfinals.
England is the fourth and final member of the top contenders. Kalshi has the Three Lions down for a 15.5% chance and is charging traders $.156 per “Yes” share.
What about the long shots?
There’s a precipitous drop-off between England and the next contender, Norway (6.3%). Ironically, those two teams will play each other in the quarterfinals on Saturday, ahead of which Kalshi users believe that England has a 63% chance of advancing.
Morocco, the fourth-place finisher at the 2022 World Cup, is sixth of the eight remaining teams (3.1%). Belgium (2.6%) is seventh, and Switzerland (2.1%) brings up the rear.
Unsurprisingly, all four of these teams are underdogs in their upcoming matches.
Where is the money going?
While Kalshi does not show individual trading volumes for various markets, Polymarket does.
Of the $4.1 billion in trading volume it processed, $101 million was related to the favorite, France. The leading $140.4 million amount actually belonged to Morocco, and was closely followed by Norway ($118.6 million), Belgium ($118.5 million), Argentina ($117 million), and Switzerland ($116.4 million).
The lowest trading volume involved England ($88.6 million).
Just because contracts were purchased in a particular market does not mean that all of the shareholders predicted they would win. For example, Polymarket user “0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B” holds $184,015 worth of contracts predicting that Morocco won’t win the World Cup.
Golden Boot prediction markets
Golden Boot prediction markets vary by site. Kalshi has Lionel Messi in a slight lead at the time of writing with a 41% chance of winning, while Kylian Mbappé is just behind at 40%. Erling Haaland (12%) and Harry Kane (9%) round out the list of contenders.
Polymarket has at 42% and Messi at 38%, with Haaland (12%) and Kane (7%) further down the board.
Messi leads the race with eight goals and one assist entering the quarterfinal. Mbappé and Haaland are tied for second with seven goals, although Mbappé’s two assists give him the tiebreaker. Kane has six goals and one assist.
Haaland is the only member of the Golden Boot contenders who is an underdog on Saturday. He’s also the only one who played four games instead of five.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Prediction markets have seen a huge spike in activity during the World Cup. Predicting the winner should become even more popular as the Final grows nearer with the field of candidates set to be cut to four by the end of Saturday.