There is only a one-third chance that the United States and Iran agree to a nuclear deal before the end of the year, according to Kalshi’s prediction markets.
The latest market data shows that users believe there is a 33% chance an agreement is finalized before 2027. The more likely timeline is before 2028, which has a 62% chance at the time of writing.
The latest data
Kalshi prediction users traded roughly $17.9 million in this market since it opened on Jan. 5.
With just a few weeks left in July, there is only a 1.9% chance of a deal being reached before August. Market probabilities that are available for every month until the end of the year are as follows:
- Before August: 1.9% ($.019)
- Before September: 12% ($.13)
- Before October: 16% ($.17)
- Before November: 19 ($.20)
- Before December: 26% ($.29)
The most-likely outcome offered by Kalshi is for a deal to be reached before Jan. 20, 2029. Traders believe there is a 73% chance that the enemy nation will meet that timeline.
Kalshi’s prediction markets note that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that is reportedly in effect does not constitute a nuclear deal. The memorandum only allows for Iran’s nuclear program to continue its existence pending a future agreement.
How have prediction markets evolved?
Kalshi’s prediction markets highlight previous trends since the trades were first accepted.
The “Before 2027” market peaked at a high of 79.2% on April 17. “Before 2028” reached its all-time high of 88.3% shortly thereafter on April 20.
Both markets have declined considerably since then. “Before December is also down to its current value of 26% after it reached 65.9% on May 22, the day after the market was first published.
Are the U.S. and Iran still at war?
The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in military operations since a coordinated strike with Israel hit the Middle-Eastern nation on Feb. 28. A 60-day ceasefire window for negotiations opened in May, but that ceasefire broke down earlier this month.
Three commercial ships within the Strait of Hormuz were hit by missiles, prompting U.S. Central Command to launch strikes that made contact with more than 80 Iranian targets. Those included air defense systems, military boats, and radar sites.
The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed, even though its technical status is “open.”
Escalating tensions
While reaching a nuclear deal remains the primary goal, President Donald Trump said that the U.S. might halt its efforts, as it can accomplish its goal without one.
“I don't know if we're going to have a deal,” Trump said to reporters during a two-day NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. “We may just do it without a deal, because you know what, it's easier.
“They'll never build a nuclear weapon under our deal. But I don't know if we're going to have a deal.”
An Iranian official accused the U.S. of launching missiles toward the country’s only nuclear power plant on Thursday. At least 14 people were killed and another 78 were wounded by airstrikes over the last two days, Iran’s Health and Ministry said on Thursday. Most of them were reportedly military members.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The recent outbreak of attacks stopped the only real “progress” between the two nations, which was the 60-day ceasefire period. Prediction markets are rightfully becoming more pessimistic of a deal, although the entire situation is volatile.