The 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets powered the largest wins at prediction leader Polymarket last week, according to the company’s leaderboard.
This comes as little surprise, given the extreme interest from traders. Customers bought and sold $4.2 billion in World Cup outright winner contracts since the market launched, and combined to produce a $10.8 billion notional trading volume during July.
The top spot
Unlike its top rival, Kalshi, Polymarket’s website shows the top 20 positional payouts among its entire customer base from the last day, week, month, and all-time.
The eight largest winners and 15 of the top 20 made the leaderboard on the back of World Cup trading. Other popular events included Wimbledon ATP tennis matches and a UFC 329 event headlined by Max Holloway and Conor McGregor.
The largest winner last week was claimed by user “DEEDIT,” who turned $748,119 into $2,615,564 by predicting that Argentina and Switzerland would finish regulation tied in goals. The contracts were purchased at an average of just $.286 per share and resulted in a near-$1.9-million profit as the match went into regulation at 1-1 and ended 3-1 in Argentina’s favor.
“DEEDIT” had already made a hefty chunk backing Switzerland. They took home $3.8 million by predicting that Switzerland and Colombia would finish regulation level, and another $1.2 million backing the Swiss to advance out of the Round of 16.
The customer does not have any active positions at the time of writing.
The runner-up
Polymarket user “maz26” won multiple trades in Norway vs. England prediction markets over the weekend.
The match — built at a showdown between elite goal-scorers Erling Haaland and Harry Kane — ended up belonging to England’s Jude Bellingham. After finishing regulation tied at 1-1, Bellingham scored his second goal of the match and the eventual winner to send the Three Lions off to a semifinal matchup with the defending champion, Argentina.
“maz26” was on the money with three positions from the match. Their largest win saw them collect $628,884.49 in profit from $906,580.76 in positions that said that England would win the match. These were purchased at $.486 per share.
The user also had contracts predicting there would be more than 2.5 goals ($.42), the match would finish regulation as a draw ($.256), and that Norway would not win ($.774).
In total, the user won close to $3.4 million from $2.1 million in trades. They also do not have any active positions.
The Bronze medal
“weatherman12” was the final user to make the podium last week.
In addition to winning $853,555.06 by predicting that England would not win in regulation and that there would be more than 2.5 goals scored in the match against Norway, they profited $1.1 million in predicting that Argentina would not beat Switzerland during regulation. The contracts were purchased at an average of $.431.
Like the other top users, this account has no active positions ahead of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s World Cup semifinal matches.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The top users last week were ahead of the 8 ball in predicting unexpected outcomes, the most common of which was matches finishing regulation tied. Polymarket is offering prediction markets for the semifinals that include prices of $.33 for Argentina-England to reach extra time and $.31 for Spain-France to be tied after regulation.