LeBron James settled nearly $270 million in trades at prediction markets by choosing to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania.
Top prediction outlets Kalshi and Polymarket reported a combined $269.2 million in trading volume in their “LeBron James Next Team” prediction markets. The 76ers were frequently listed in the top four of potential suitors, although they were far behind the leaders.
LeBron upsets prediction markets
At noon on Thursday, Polymarket users believed the Miami Heat had a leading 44% chance of reuniting James with South Beach, where he won two championships in 2012 and 2013. That probability was inflated by a so-called accident in which a member of the team’s media department briefly posted and then deleted a YouTube livestream titled “LeBron James Introductory Press Conference.”
The Cleveland Cavaliers — James’ hometown team — were well off the Heat’s pace, but still had a 25% chance of reuniting for a third stint with James. The Golden State Warriors, once the dominant favorite, had a 16% chance, and the 76ers brought up the rear at 7%. The Minnesota Timberwolves (1%) were the only other team with a probability exceeding 1%.
Users at Kalshi felt similarly to those at Polymarket. Teams’ prices in their prediction markets at noon Thursday were:
- Miami: 46%
- Cleveland: 28%
- Golden State: 16%
- Philadelphia 9%
Kalshi’s website shows it accepted $226.9 million in trades just on its platform since the market opened on Jan. 25.
Philadelphia had never surged above an 18% chance on July 4 and was consistently fourth in the four-team group of the Heat, Cavaliers, and Warriors. Polymarket saw Philadelphia spike to a 48% chance for just one day on May 10, but they never returned above 21% after May.
NBA Finals prediction markets swing
To little surprise, James’ decision to head to Philly greatly impacted NBA Finals prediction markets.
The 2025 champion Oklahoma City Thunder still lead the way with a 25% chance ahead of the upcoming season. The reigning Western Conference champions, the San Antonio Spurs, are just behind with a 20% chance.
James and the 76ers now sit third in probability with a 12% likelihood, ahead of the title-winning New York Knicks (8%), the Boston Celtics (6%), and other challengers. They only had a 6% chance an hour ago.
Polymarket traders are even more bullish on the Sixers. Their 14% chance is only behind the Thunder (24%) and the Spurs (19%), after they were at a 7% chance yesterday.
LeBron speaks on choosing the 76ers
James issued a statement on X (Twitter) after Charania told the world of his plan to suit up in blue and white next season.
According to a series of connected posts, James was going to retire after the last season. However, a period of self-reflection led him to realize that he wanted to “sacrifice” and “work” to win another championship.
“I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time,” James wrote in his post.
James’ two-year deal includes a player option after the first year. He will only make $3.8 million per year, marking the lowest average annual value deal of his 23-year NBA career.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
We previously discussed skepticism from online users about the Heat’s YouTube live-stream, and the reaction that would follow if James did not choose to go back to Miami. Those conversations will naturally occur, but that aside, the 76ers have one of the most talented lineups in all of basketball. The starting five of Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron, and Joel Embiid fits together and sets the franchise up for a deep playoff run.