With the NFL preseason beginning in full this week, America’s leading prediction markets have already taken $100 million in trades related to the winner of the 2027 Super Bowl.
Last week’s Hall of Fame Game thriller between the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals whet the palate of NFL fans nationwide, all of whom will have the opportunity to see their team in action this week. With that marking the official return of football, Kalshi and Polymarket are already nine figures out of the starting blocks — before nearly every team even played a single snap.
Super Bowl prediction markets go mainstream
Kalshi posted the larger trading handle of the two market leaders, reaching $57.6 million at the time of writing. Polymarket was close behind at $43.3 million, contributing to a $100.9 million between the two.
Users of both prediction markets have made the Los Angeles Rams the favorites with a 15% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI. Both also have the Buffalo Bills at 8%, but that’s where the similarities end.
Kalshi lists the defending champion Seattle Seahawks at 8%, just like the Bills; Polymarket has them at 7% in a three-way tie with the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kalshi has the Ravens (7%) and Chiefs (6%) at standalone probabilities, before the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers are all listed at 5%. Polymarket has the Chargers, Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys at 5%.
An interesting approach
Polymarket, unlike Kalshi, shows positional leaderboards within its prediction markets.
User “expectingmore” is the largest individual shareholder in any market outcome, and also has several of the next-largest positions. Interestingly, all of these positions are for teams near the bottom in likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
The daring trader has 151,903 shares — the most in any available outcome — that say the Arizona Cardinals will win the Super Bowl. Those shares were purchased at an average of $.008 and have a total value of $1,139.28 at the time of writing.
They also own the following positions:
- 117,266 shares backing the Tennessee Titans, purchased at $.007, worth $762.23
- 116,498 shares backing the Miami Dolphins, purchased at $.01, worth $1,106.73
- 88,021 shares backing the New York Jets, purchased at $.01, worth $660.15
- 78,559 shares backing the Cleveland Browns, purchased at $.09, worth $667.75
Which teams are generating the most interest?
If there was a time for Super Bowl prediction markets to be conquered by an underdog, it is now. The Seahawks were huge underdogs at the beginning of the last season, before they went 14-3 and crushed the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The team finished the year with one of the best single-season DVOA marks in league history and new hardware for all of their players and coaches.
According to Polymarket, the Chargers ($4.8 million) are the most popular market of all competing teams. That figure relates to trades prediction they will and won’t win the big game, meaning that they are not necessarily the most popular “Yes” pick.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3.8 million), Panthers ($3.7 million), and Jets ($1.9 million) are the next most-popular outcomes in Super Bowl prediction markets.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The 2026 NFL campaign and the ensuing race to the Super Bowl will mark the first time that prediction markets have been a mainstream attraction during football season. Prediction operators have been allowed to grow at incredible speeds, although a recent round of legal defeats, combined with the increased skepticism they are likely to face during their most active time of the year, leave their future in question. In the meantime, traders can add to the nine-figure handle from users who are already predicting the next Super Bowl winner.