Prediction markets entered mass consciousness around the time of the beginning of the last NFL season. Event contracts for every game throughout the week and the introduction of combos, prediction operators’ parlay equivalent, offered users the chance to risk the same money they were already going to front, only for the chance to win even more.
There is less than one month until the NFL begins its regular season, and prediction markets are in the middle of an unfamiliar slump in activity. But if last year was any indicator, trading volume is just a few weeks away from surging back to familiar levels.
NFL prediction markets to inspire more growth
Combined global trading volume on major prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, was below $5 billion last September. That figure grew 91% month-over-month to reach an estimated $8.4 billion in October and spiked all the way to $23.4 billion by February, the month of the Super Bowl.
Trading activity is constantly changing based on the operator, global events, and time of year. However, sports event contracts typically make up 70-80% of trading volume at prediction markets, which are expecting a busy period during the ever-popular NFL season.
According to public information shared on Kalshi’s website, users have already traded $66.4 million on the outcome of the 2027 Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams (15%) have the greatest probability of winning the championship and are nearly twice as likely as the next-closest team, the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks (8%).
Over $815,000 has also been traded on the outcomes of the 16 Week 1 matchups, led by a $213,995 total from the season opener and Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the New England Patriots. That’s despite there still being two preseason games and a roster cutdown deadline until a second of regular-season action is played.
Polymarket, Kalshi’s top competitor, already processed $45.3 million in trades on the outcome of the upcoming Super Bowl. It also has the Rams as a 15% favorite, followed by the Seahawks and the Buffalo Bills (both 9%).
The two leading operators accepted nearly $11 million in Super Bowl trades since Monday, Aug. 10.
Trading interest in individual games is much lower at Polymarket, although that can be expected to dramatically increase as the regular season gets closer.
$37 billion in trades
Finance data aggregator DefiLlama found that cash trading volume at the leading prediction markets reached $17.3 billion in July but was only on a trajectory of $14.3 billion in August, marking an expected 17% month-over-month decline just before the NFL season.
The dwindling figures are par for the course during the “dead period” in professional sports. The more important story is Kalshi’s increasing hold on the market, as the platform had reported a trading volume 4.9 times larger than Polymarket. That’s a significant change from June, when they were only separated by a factor of 2.2.
Regardless of individual operators’ performances, prediction markets are expected to produce $36.8 billion in trades during the NFL season, more than double last year’s volume, according to an analysis from RotoWire.com. That figure is above the $32.3 billion that is expected to be processed by legal sportsbooks.
Live data tracker DeFi Rate showed that NFL prediction markets are already benefiting from the season approaching. Trading volume reached $167.8 million in the week ending on Aug. 16, up 324.4% from the prior week’s total.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US had a combined NFL trading volume of $236.9 million as of two days ago. 71% of that was traded during the week that ended on Aug. 16.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The NFL is king in America. Prediction markets continue to brand themselves as separate from the sports betting industry, but their expected uptick in activity during the NFL season and the interest in sports event contracts show how important marquee sports games are for prediction operators.