Shohei Ohtani’s plight to win a third consecutive NL MVP award hit a snag this weekend, when Kalshi traders dropped him below 40% for the first time all season.
Ohtani opened the year as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 NL MVP race, but has received serious competition in the way of Chicago Cubs star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Recent NL MVP Trade Movement
The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder has been falling behind Crow-Armstrong for some time now, as Kalshi trends show PCW took his first official lead on August 12th, 2026. The two exchanged blows via Kalshi trades over the coming days, but began to potentially separate for good on August 18th.
Since then, it’s been all Crow-Armstrong, as the Cubs outfielder has ridden an elite WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to favored status.
While Crow-Armstrong is distancing himself, the gap between him and the uber-talented Ohtani is still alarming. The movement demands a closer look at the market, whether now may be the time to hammer down PCA exposure, or take a shot on what the field is regarding as a sinking ship in Ohtani.
Why the Market is Favoring Pete Crow-Armstrong
As mentioned, the big draw for PCA is his elite WAR. Chicago’s best player does a little bit of everything, while his production has also led to a lot of winning.
More specifically, Crow-Armstrong has supplied power (7th with 32 home runs), has made a positive impact on his team’s base runners (10th with 80 RBI), and has consistently gotten on base (13th with a .931 OPS).
PCA has been a major plus offensively, but he’s also been one of the best base-runners in the game (5th most steals), and his defense also helps contribute to his MLB-leading 7.9 WAR.
The numbers will fluctuate depending on the day, but the case for Pete Crow-Armstrong to win the 2026 NL MVP race is abundantly clear.
Why Traders Shouldn’t Quit on Ohtani Yet
Shohei Ohtani looks lost if we’re only paying attention to movement on prediction markets, but he’s not the type of guy we want to rule out early.
The Dodgers masher is still not far behind Crow-Armstrong, as he currently ranks 3rd in WAR (6.9), while he also ranks 8th with 30 home runs, and is right up there with PCA in regards to RBIs generated and OPS.
Offensively, it’s a borderline wash. Crow-Armstrong does have the edge with his base-running production, but Ohtani could take the cake if NL MVP voters factor in his elite pitching.
L.A.’s ace was fantastic before hitting the pause button on his pitching. He had posted the best ERA (1.79) of his entire career, and was also off to an 8-2 start with 95 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. Now news has broken that the Dodgers plan to put him back, which could boost Ohtani’s WAR and launch him back to the top of the NL MVP race.
The Trade Handle Predictions Markets Take
There’s no denying the way the market is moving, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s price moving and Ohtani being a difficult guy to bet against, it’s easy to see where the value is.
Ohtani was already a compelling value bet when this race looked to be dead even. Now that he’s hovering in the 30% range, the gap is so wide that a crack at Ohtani feels necessary.
This market all comes down to Ohtani’s pitching status and how he performs. PCA’s case is strong and he’d be a worthy winner, but Ohtani pitching at a top-10 level would render him an insane value for Kalshi traders.