It only took one weekend for Arsenal to surge ahead in the likelihood of winning the English Premier League at popular prediction markets.
The defending champions easily handled newly promoted Coventry City in the first matchday of the 2026/27 season, 3-0. That and a series of disappointing results from most of their title challengers helped propel them above a coin flip’s chance of winning the title.
Arsenal grows in EPL prediction markets
No, this isn't the NFL type of football.
Arsenal walked away with the 2025/26 league trophy after amassing 85 points, seven more than second-place Manchester City. They entered the first weekend of the new season with 47% and 46% chances of winning the league at English Premier League prediction markets offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.
Just a few days after Friday’s encounter with Coventry City and the Gunner find themselves at a 52% chance of hoisting their second consecutive trophy at both prediction platforms. If successful, this would mark Arsenal’s first back-to-back championship in the top flight of English Soccer since 1933-34 and 1934-35.
Arsenal’s surge in support from public traders was not directly down to their performance — underwhelming showings from other top competitors played a significant role.
Movement inside the top five
Man City only managed to squeak a 2-1 win over AFC Bournemouth with goals in the 84th and 90+1st minute after trailing for most of the match. Despite the win, the Citizens initially dropped from 19% to 17% at Kalshi, before rebounding to 21% on Monday afternoon. They fell from 22% to 18% and climbed back to 20% at Polymarket.
Despite being one of two teams that haven’t taken the pitch, Chelsea climbed in likelihood of winning the league from last Friday to Monday. The Blues, who finished 10th one year ago, went from 11% to 12% at Kalshi and 10% to 12% at Polymarket.
The third-place finishers of a year ago, Manchester United, were not as fortunate. The Red Devils were uncompetitive in a 2-0 loss to promoted side Hull City, which dropped them from 10% to 6% at Kalshi and 9% to 7% at Polymarket.
Liverpool, the 2023-24 champions, met a similar fate. A 2-2 draw with Newcastle caused The Reds to fall out of favor with traders. Kalshi users dropped them from 13% to 9%, while Polymarket moved them from 13% to 11%.
English Premier League prediction markets failures
While there was noticeable movement inside the top five EPL prediction markets, none was more noticeable than those involving Tottenham.
A 5% spike at Kalshi on Friday evening saw the club fall to 2% less than 24 hours later after they were throttled by Brentford, 3-0. Polymarket users also moved them from 3.3% to 1%, despite the club spending £231.3 million ($311.5 million) on player transfers, the second-most in the league behind Chelsea.
Aston Villa also met an unfortunate fate as the last club seemingly standing a chance of competing. Their 2% chance has fallen to 1% at Kalshi, while they dropped from 1% to 0.7% at Polymarket.
The history book
Although EPL prediction markets heavily favor Arsenal, the London club will need to overcome a strong historical precedent to fulfill its ambitions.
No team not named Manchester City has won consecutive league titles since Manchester United did in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Arsenal is also firmly the hunted, as opposed to the hunter it had been during a 22-year stretch without a Premier League trophy that ended in May.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
English Premier League prediction markets shaping up the way they are this early in the season provides an opportunity to get serious value for any team not named Arsenal if they can be competitive. This includes having the opportunity to sell a contract before the season concludes if the team’s probability has risen. That said, Arsenal has the best squad in the league and appears to be the rightful favorite.