Novig, a new entrant into the scaling competition in prediction markets, is already posting impressive returns.
The sports-focused operator launched nationwide on Aug. 4. About three weeks later, it is already ahead of top competitors Underdog and Robinhood-backed Rothera, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming analyst Brad Allen.
Novig nails launch of prediction markets
Novig previously operated as a state-licensed peer-to-peer sports betting exchange and a dual-currency sweepstakes platform. It transitioned to prediction markets after it secured a Designated Contract Market approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in June.
Despite starting much later than many of its adversaries, analysts confirmed that it was an emphatic arrival for Novig.
“Novig’s exchange launched on Aug. 4 and is off to a strong start, with daily average contract volume of 21 million,” Allen said. “That’s ahead of Robinhood’s Rothera exchange and the Underdog exchange.”
According to public trading information, Novig’s average daily trading volume during the week ending on Aug. 23 grew to $23.3 million. Rothera and Robinhood were at $18 million, and Underdog was at $16 million.
Even more impressively, Novig’s numbers dwarfed competitors such as ProphetX ($5.8 million), FanDuel partner CME ($3.3 million), and DraftKings’ trading platform DKeX ($1.1 million).
Focused on sports
Novig is distinctly different from most of the other operators because of its focus on events in sports-focused prediction markets. Many other platforms also offer contracts in entertainment, politics, finance, weather, pop culture, elections, science, and additional markets.
It’s that heavy focus on sports that makes the arrival of Novig in prediction markets even more impressive. August is traditionally the final month of the “dead season” in professional sports, during which marquee sports and leagues are out of competition.
Analysts at RotoWire.com previously estimated that $36.8 billion would be traded during the upcoming NFL season, which kicks off in early September. That figure is even beyond the record $32.3 billion that is expected to be wagered at legal sportsbooks during the same period.
Trailing the big dogs
While Novig is off to the races in prediction markets, it is still extraordinarily far behind leading operators Kalshi and Polymarket — as is the majority of competitors.
The two market leaders combine for roughly $1.3 billion in average daily notional trading volume. Even split down the middle, that would be nearly 28 times larger than Novig’s daily average during the most recent weekly period.
That hasn’t detracted from Novig’s strong growth. The platform was valued at $500 million in private markets following a Series B funding round earlier this year, a figure that should only increase as its prediction market activity takes off.
“Our growth will continue to be product-led, but we’re going to become much more aggressive on user acquisition and brand awareness,” Fortinsky said in a recent appearance on the 4th Quarter podcast. “I’d be surprised if, in the next two months, any sports fan didn’t know who Novig was.”
Week 0 of the college football season will begin this weekend, officially marking the return of football season and the beginning of a nearly-uninterrupted active sports period that will conclude in June 2027.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Novig wasn’t shy about making its entrance into an increasingly-crowded prediction market space, purchasing ad spots on various platforms to fuel its first-month activity. The platform’s early success is impressive, given its focus on sports and the lack of ongoing events. Football season will be critical for every prediction platform’s bottom line, but it will also reveal Novig’s true place in the market.