Prediction markets have already generated nearly $125 million in Super Bowl trades with the season just a week away.
According to trading data posted on Kalshi and Polymarket, the platforms accepted $76.9 million and $48.5 million in contract purchases and sales, respectively. That’s $125.4 million between only two platforms and does not account for competitors such as Robinhood-backed Rothera, Underdog, or DraftKings (DKeX), among others.
Early leaders in Super Bowl prediction markets
Prediction markets maintain regulatory distinctions from legal sportsbooks, but they are both heavily influenced by the same schedule. Sports bettors regularly wager the most money during football season, and prediction markets are gearing up for their first cycle under the watchful eye of mainstream media.
Users at both Kalshi and Polymarket believe that the Los Angeles Rams are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, with probabilities settling at 17% and 18% at the time of writing, respectively. Those are more than twice as high as the closest contenders.
The Buffalo Bills are second at both platforms (8% and 9%). Kalshi traders have them level with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, while Polymarket customers view the Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens as both having a 7% chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy.
Kalshi prediction markets list the Ravens at a standalone 7%, just ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (6%), before there are seven teams at 5%. Polymarket also has the Chiefs at 6%, but only the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys at 5%.
NFL prediction markets gaining steam
Before NFL teams can compete to win the Super Bowl, they have to get through the slugfest that is the regular season — and despite there being a week until the games kick off, prediction markets have also seen strong interest in individual matchups.
The season-opening battle between the Seahawks and Patriots on Wednesday, Sept. 9 has produced more than $532,000 in trades between the two platforms, which list the Seahawks as 63% and 64% favorites.
Late-week primetime matchups have also sparked the interest of traders. The first Sunday Night Football showdown of the year between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, as well as the Monday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, have easily produced six figures in trades each. Traders are backing the Cowboys (60%) and Chiefs (55% and 57%).
Extreme hype for NFL, Super Bowl prediction markets
NFL prediction markets have extraordinary potential.
According to reports, a combined total of more than $1.6 billion was traded between Kalshi and Polymarket in Super Bowl prediction markets in February. Single-day trading volume surpassed $1.2 billion, a then-all-time record, thanks to offerings related to the final score, player performances, halftime show details, national anthem, and additional options.
RotoWire also estimated that $36.8 billion will be traded on NFL outcomes during the 2026-27 season, nearly 2.2 times more than the $16.8 billion that was reported during the most recent season. That’s more than the $32.3 billion that is expected to be wagered at legal sportsbooks during the same period, which would mark the smallest year-over-year growth since sports betting was federally legalized in 2018.
Trading volumes are expected to dramatically increase as the season gets closer.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Super Bowl and NFL prediction markets have the potential to drive the discourse surrounding trading and its proximity to sports betting. The upcoming months should be the busiest time of the year for the platforms, all of which have the potential to handle extraordinarily large sums of money. Most states have pushed back on the idea that prediction markets don’t need to receive licensing to operate nationwide, and they will be as motivated as ever to issue legal challenges during a period of extreme activity.