With the 2026 NFL season almost here, the league has reportedly informed the prediction market industry that it’d like to see some changes. The league’s chief compliance officer, Sabrina Perel, issued a letter that has the NFL asking for “objectionable bets” to be avoided.
The league has reportedly isolated certain wagers that may “threaten the integrity” of games, while the letter suggested the NFL had already expressed its displeasure with certain contracts “months ago”.
The NFL Wants Prediction Market Contracts Taken Down
When the NFL objects, you usually listen. The league has to this point had no issue with sports betting or prediction markets, but a recent letter suggests they do want to be careful with wagers involving their teams and players.
Per the report, the NFL viewed it as “deeply concerning” that event markets it already deemed to be threatening to the league’s integrity were still appearing on major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The league has made a vocal effort to ensure the integrity of their game, which ideally includes the removal of wagers that could be easily manipulated.
Why the NFL Views Certain Markets as a Threat
What might be a threat is subjective in theory, but the NFL has a list of objectionable bets that it’d like prediction markets to avoid.
The following is a shortlist of bets that the NFL deems to be “easily manipulable” by just one person:
- Will a kicker miss a field goal?
- Will a quarterback’s first pass be incomplete?
- Will a receiver’s first target be incomplete?
- Will a running back rush for fewer than X number of yards on 1st rushing attempt?
These examples are different from regular props where players need to attain a certain number over the course of a game. In these cases, a player could simply fail to meet the mark on one individual play, making the market easy to manipulate and also difficult to detect.
This list is just an example of NFL prediction market contracts that could be abused. Despite football being a team game, there are a litany of actions throughout games where players commit actions independent of their team. This leaves the door open to market manipulation.
The league has also expressed a desire to remove wagers involving fan safety and player injuries. Teams and players have inside information on who will be available for games, which has prompted the NFL to request the removal of this type of betting.
NFL Prediction Market Volume is Only Growing
This letter from the NFL is a step in the right direction, as the league is attempting to get in front of a rapidly growing prediction market industry.
Growth for big prediction market platforms is a good thing, but with various levels of insider trading popping up in congress and even the military, the NFL is understandably hoping to avoid bad publicity of its own.
The NFL isn’t the only major sports league that should have interest in scaling back or completely removing certain types of markets. With deals in place with the NBA, MLB, and even the NHL recently, the prediction market industry continues to speed up its expansion with no signs of slowing down.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
It is very encouraging that the NFL is taking the integrity of their game seriously. The fact that they have already spoken on this matter to the top prediction market sites, only to be ignored, is a bit disconcerting.
For now, meeting somewhere in the middle will have to be the acceptable outcome. Prediction markets are trying to squeeze the lemon for all the juice its worth, while the NFL is attempting to prevent devastating corruption.
In the short-term, there may be nothing to worry about. Long-term, however, the NFL’s plight for specific wager removal is undeniably going to tie in with stiffer regulatory changes.