The NFL returns on Wednesday night, with the 2026 season kicking off with a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Kalshi traders are all over the defending champion Seahawks to defend their crown, with 61% of trades backing Seattle to win.
Current NFL Kickoff Game markets also favor the game to go over 43.5 points (52%), while 52% of trades are on the Patriots to beat a 3.5-point spread.
Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction Markets Favor Seattle
It’s not shocking for the Seahawks to pull into the first game of the year with the public’s backing. They are the defending champions, after all, and the previous year’s Super Bowl winner is 16-5 in 21 Kickoff Games.
Seattle also took care of business rather easily in the Super Bowl showdown with New England, sacking Patriots quarterback Drake Maye six times. The Seahawks didn’t dominate offensively, but did enough to pile on early and hold on for a convincing 29-13 win.
The market is fairly decisive here, but a quick look at the Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction market trends at Kalshi show there’s been a dip. Seattle opened with 68% of the shares initially, but we’ve seen that number slide down by 7% over the last four months.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Markets Anticipate Close, Low-Scoring Affair
While prediction markets see Seattle winning, it isn’t expected to be by a landslide. With the Patriots adding superstar wide receiver A.J. Brown and fortifying their offensive line this offseason, it stands to reason that they’ll put up a better fight in the rematch.
The 3.5-point spread suggests a close game, but so does history. Week one isn’t the best spot to get high-scoring games, as teams don’t play their starters during the preseason. In addition, this game features two top shelf defenses, so scoring could be tough to come by.
The market agrees, but the trades for the spread and total remain quite tight.
What Could Shift the Seahawks vs. Patriots Prediction Markets?
Just as important is noting where the Seahawks vs. Patriots markets are, is projecting where they might go. That can play into player specific markets, or it could alter how you trade on the game itself.
Everyone already knew the Seahawks were coming into 2026 with a bit of a facelift. Star running back Kenneth Walker III left in free agency, while offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak took over as head coach in Las Vegas.
Big changes for the Patriots weren’t necessarily on everyone’s radar, with a big one being star running back TreVeyeon Henderson likely to sit out the opener.
Henderson’s likely absence lowers New England’s offensive ceiling, and it puts added pressure on running back Rhamondre Stevenson. It also changes how Stevenson’s markets may be traded.
There’s also doubt surrounding shutdown cover man Christian Gonzalez, who has ongoing contract talks with the team that have yet to progress. That could lead to him skipping the team’s first game, which would impact how Patriots markets get traded as well.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The market is high on Seattle right now, and the latest news coming out of New England fortifies that stance. That may end up leading to much more volume going toward the Seahawks.
Seattle’s price may not get better than what we see now, while it’s also worth noting that this is a high volume event with over $1.7 million traded already on Kalshi.
On the surface, the 2026 NFL Kickoff Game is a big win for everyone. Kalshi is benefiting from an explosive market, while traders just hope to be on the right side of the NFL’s first set of prediction markets.