Week 1 of the college football season drew heavy interest in prediction markets, particularly in the race to win the Heisman Trophy.
Most teams across the country made their season debuts late last week or over the weekend. Although the regular-season schedule consists of 12 games, Heisman prediction markets have already seen large swings to account for the early performances of the game’s brightest stars.
The leaders
In a weekend that included LSU’s 51-10 blowout win over Clemson and Michigan’s time-expiring Hail Mary to survive Western Michigan at home, the players who drew the most praise were teammates at Miami.
Miami Quarterback Darian Mensah, a Duke transfer, completed 90% of his passes en route to 401 yards and five touchdowns in a win against Stanford. His excellence prompted him to double from as low as a 7% likelihood in August to a 14% chance to win the Heisman at Kalshi. That is comfortably the highest mark on the board.
Fellow Hurricanes star and wide receiver Malachi Toney was also outstanding in the win. He caught 12 passes for a Miami single-game record 234 yards and three touchdowns, causing him to climb from a 2% chance entering the game to 6%.
A pair of quarterbacks, Arch Manning (Texas) and CJ Carr (Notre Dame), are providing Mensah’s greatest competition. Manning sat at 10% entering the weekend but dropped slightly to 9% after he threw for 305 yards, four TDs, and an interception against Texas State.
Carr was as high as 12% last week and 11% before Saturday’s games. He dropped to 9% after logging 239 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win against Wisconsin.
Heisman prediction markets constantly changing
The only non-quarterback positioned ahead of Toney is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith Jr. The junior snagged eight receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns in a demolition job against Ball State, helping him climb to fourth in Heisman prediction markets with an 8% chance of winning.
Smith’s QB, Julian Sayin, rounds out the top five candidates with a 7% chance. He had 320 yards and three touchdowns against Ball State.
Dante Moore (Oregon), Jayden Maiava (USC), Sam Leavitt (LSU) and Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) are all tied with Toney at 6%. Indiana’s Josh Hoover and John Mateer sit at 4%, and there’s a smaller group of outside contenders at 2-3%.
A complete look at the top Heisman prediction markets and how they changed after Week 1 can be found below.
| Player | Current Probability (Kalshi) | Last Week | Change (%) |
| Darian Mensah | 14% | 10% | +4 |
| Arch Manning | 9% | 10% | -1 |
| CJ Carr | 9% | 12% | -3 |
| Jeremiah Smith Jr. | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Julian Sayin | 7% | 7% | - |
| Dante Moore | 6% | 9% | -3 |
| Jayden Maiava | 6% | 4% | +2 |
| Malachi Toney | 6% | 2% | +4 |
| Sam Leavitt | 6% | 4% | +2 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 6% | 8% | -2 |
| Josh Hoover | 4% | 5% | -1 |
| John Mateer | 4% | 4% | - |
Traders moving huge sums
Kalshi’s Heisman prediction markets generated $16.3 million in trades through the first week of action. That’s part of what is expected to be an enormous trading period during football season.
Analytics and research platform DeFi Rate revealed on Sunday that it estimated Kalshi’s NFL trading volume could reach $57 billion during the upcoming campaign. Although that only accounted for NFL markets, it shows the extreme interest that Kalshi is expected to receive.
Beyond the Heisman race, prediction users have already shown their affinity for college football markets. Kalshi reported $26 million in trades related to the upcoming national championship winner, a market currently led by Ohio State (13%).
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
The Heisman race is known for being incredibly volatile. Quarterbacks won four of the last five awards, and only one full-time wide receiver has won the award since 1991 (DeVonta Smith, 2020). There’s still a long way to go, and there are opportunities to buy contracts for players with lower probabilities who figure to consistently dominate for teams that are positioned to compete for a national championship.