What if you could make money by trading on the outcome of an election you actually don’t want to see? 36% say they would put money on their own party losing if they believed it offered the best chance of a payout, a survey of 3,000 U.S. voters by TradeHandle.com finds.
Key findings:
- 36% of Americans would trade against their own political party for a chance to profit, with Alabama the most willing and Mississippi the least
- 40% of Republicans would trade against their own party, compared with 30% of Democrats
- While only 1 in 5 would make the trade if they could make at least $50, nearly half of Americans would do so if they could make $1,000
- 3 in 10 Americans would choose a trading profit over seeing their preferred party win
- 46% say election trading boosts midterm interest
States most willing to trade against their political beliefs
How much is political loyalty worth? With the midterms on the horizon, it’s set to be a busy time, not least on the prediction markets. But what if you thought your party was more likely to lose the 2026 midterm elections than win? Would you put money on it?
More than 1 in 3 Americans, or 36%, say they would. Among Republicans, that percentage rises to 40%, compared with 30% of Democrats. At the state level, Alabama has the highest willingness to make the trade, with 53% of voters saying they would do so. Oklahoma and Georgia follow, at 50% and 49%, respectively. The least willing to trade against their own political party for profit are people in Mississippi, where only 1 in 10 say they would do so.
Would you sell out your party for $1,000?
How much would it take to trade against the political party you support? Our study looked at how Americans’ willingness to make a trade changed as the potential profit increased. We found that 21% of Americans would make the trade if $50 were on the line, but that percentage steadily increases as the potential payout goes up. At $100, 28% would make the trade, rising to 40% when $500 is on the line and 46% when the potential profit reaches $1,000.
Using $1,000 as the benchmark, we then looked at the percentage of voters in each state willing to put their party loyalty aside for that amount. Oklahoma ranks highest, with 79% saying they would make the trade, followed by Alabama (67%) and Massachusetts (62%). Nevada has the lowest percentage, at just 18%.
32% wouldn’t trade, even for $100,000
Once the potential payout reaches $5,000, more than half of Americans (54%) are willing to put their political ideals aside. At a hypothetical $100,000 payout, that figure rises to 68%, more than 2 in 3 Americans. However, that still leaves 32% who would refuse to make the trade, even with $100,000 on the line.
Financial gain vs. political loyalty
We also asked respondents to make a simple choice: Imagine you could either see your preferred political party win the 2026 midterm elections or make money if they lost. Which would you choose?
Three in 10 Americans say they would rather see their party lose and make money themselves than see their party win without making any money. Among Democrats, that percentage drops to 19%, while 38% of Republicans would choose the money.
At the state level, Oklahoma has the highest percentage of voters choosing financial gain over seeing their party win, at 64%. Colorado has the lowest, with just 13% choosing to profit from their party’s loss.
Would Americans feel guilty trading against their political party?
Still, trading against their favorite political party may not sit well with many Americans, with half of respondents (50%) saying they would feel uncomfortable making the trade. Marylanders are the most uneasy about it, with 72% saying they would feel uncomfortable. The percentage is also considerably higher among Democrats than Republicans, at 63% versus 44%.
Trading boosts midterm interest
Still, prediction markets could actually boost political interest. 46% of Americans say trading on election outcomes would make them more interested in the midterms. That number stands at 55% among Republicans, compared to 41% of Democrats.
Methodology
TradeHandle.com examined how willing Americans would be to trade against their own political party, if doing so could earn them money. In September 2026, a nationwide survey of 3,000 U.S. voters was conducted. Respondents were asked which state they live in, their political affiliation, and whether they would make a prediction market trade against their preferred political party, allowing them to profit if their party were to lose the elections.
Respondents were then presented with eight different potential payouts and asked the same question for each amount. They were also asked to choose between seeing their preferred political party win the 2026 midterm elections and making money if their party lost.
Finally, respondents were asked how comfortable or uncomfortable they would feel making such a trade, and whether trading on political outcomes would make them more interested in following the 2026 midterm elections.
Of all respondents, 50% identified as male, 49% as female and 1% as non-binary. The average age was 41.9 years.
The following states were excluded due to insufficient data: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Louisiana.