Wisconsin has a complicated relationship with prediction markets, but currently allows major sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to operate in the state. That may not be the norm when looking at the industry’s place in the state, long-term.
In a recent interview, Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley cited changes he’d like to oversee, with alterations to prediction market offerings being among them. Crowley suggested that sports event contracts would be okay, but other markets such as military or political-based events should not be used for profit.
Crowley Wants to Change Wisconsin Prediction Markets
While Crowley’s comments don’t call for a complete eradication of prediction market platforms, he was emphatic about the state needing to vet them properly.
Crowley’s preference is for elected officials to be cut off from participating in prediction markets, while all public employees would be prohibited from benefiting from privileged inside information.
His proposal stems from a more diverse government ethics overhaul, with the prevention of Wisconsin government members from profiting from trading stocks or event contracts.
Put simply, Crowley is in favor of tighter regulation of prediction markets in the state, but to this point he hasn’t said anything about forcing them out of Wisconsin entirely.
Wisconsin’s Prediction Market Battle Isn’t About Just Crowley
Crowley would have a significant say in how the Wisconsin prediction market landscape unfolds from here, but he may need to win the race for state Governor first.
As things stand, he’s just one voice in a sea of political opinions. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are currently technically legal in Wisconsin, but it’s a complicated and contentious situation.
Kalshi specifically has been contested by the state and is involved in an active legal battle between state and federal regulators. Kalshi is fully regulated through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but Wisconsin has filed lawsuits against the platform, as well as other prediction markets.
The state’s goal has been to block the sites from offering sports event contracts in the state, while the CFTC has provided federal intervention by suing the state.
Is Wisconsin Set Up to Be a Major Prediction Market Hot Spot?
The prediction market landscape is ever evolving in Wisconsin, which only recently legalized online sports betting.
Until now, 11 Native American tribes have split the right to run casinos and regulated gambling operations in the state. With online betting approved and regulated sportsbooks like DraftKings trying to get their foot in the door, talks remain fluid as to the state’s online gambling offerings.
That alone puts prediction markets in an awkward spot. By their definition they aren’t gambling, but a trading of event contracts. That means Kalshi and any other prediction platforms that want in on Wisconsin’s share of the online gaming pie need to align with the tribes or fight them for their right to exist.
Crowley’s stance is just another wrinkle to add to the pile, but a recent partnership between Kalshi and the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana ignites new hope for all sides to benefit.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
There appears to be light at the end of the tunnel in Wisconsin. Crowley’s comments suggest he is okay with prediction markets setting up shop in the state, but he has his demands.
Kalshi and other platforms would need to agree to only conduct certain types of business, but that is easier said than done.
Of course, Crowley is just one element to the Wisconsin prediction market conversation. He still is going to demand changes, and even beyond him there are incentives from the state and the tribes to either keep prediction markets at bay, or at least dictate how and when they operate.
The good news? The conversation is happening, and it’s not all doom and gloom. For now, Wisconsin prediction markets are legal and Crowley is (kind of) on their side.