Robinhood isn’t quite on par with major prediction market platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket, but they’re quietly closing the gap. More importantly, they’re making their CEO’s lofty goals look more realistic with each passing month.
The company surpassed 30 billion contracts over the course of the first eight months of 2026, showing marked growth compared to 2025 (just 12 billion). In addition, the company announced partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com, which will help expand certain event contracts and facilitate growth even further.
Robinhood's Prediction Market Growth is Accelerating
Robinhood has been on a very positive trajectory dating back to last year. The company reported over 12 billion contracts being traded in 2025, and they’ve managed to triple that number in less than a full year.
The prediction market platform has seen 45+ billion contracts traded by their users overall in the past two years, while Q2 (13.6 billion contracts traded) was their highest volume period to date.
Sports contracts have been a big mover for the industry, and that’s also been the case for Robinhood, which benefited greatly from the World Cup (5 million) this past summer.
Vlad Tenev’s Bold Prediction is Heating Up
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev saw this major boom coming, not just for his company, but for the prediction market industry in general. Back in February, Tenev declared that the future was quite bright for prediction markets, stating that annual earnings could hit the trillions.
There is still a long way to go to hit that ambitious mark, but Robinhood has clearly benefited from the industry’s boom. With another 4.7 billion contracts traded in August (15x the site’s 2025 volume in the same month), Robinhood has now processed nearly three times the number of event contracts they handled in all of 2025.
Tenev had said back in February that prediction markets were Robinhood’s fastest-growing business ever, and his prediction (while falling short of trillions) was spot on. Needless to say, expectations are high as the company prepares for Q4.
Prediction Market Volume is Exploding Overall
Robinhood is breaking their own records, but the bigger picture is that prediction markets in general are heating up in a big way.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two heavy-hitters in the industry, as they combined for $39 billion in event contract volume in August alone. With college football and the NFL in season, the MLB playoffs nearing, and the return of the NBA just around the corner, even more volume should be on its way.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
If there were any doubts lingering about the state of the prediction market industry, Robinhood’s latest volume report erases them.
Robinhood is a far cry from their CEO’s bold proclamation, but that was always a lofty long-term projection. The good news is Robinhood is increasing trade volume consistently, and they could very well be preparing for their strongest quarter yet.
The bigger news is that prediction markets in general are thriving. And this is in the face of constant legal battles. If and when prediction markets can put pesky legal and regulatory concerns in the rearview mirror, the steady climb over the past year shows that the ceiling for this industry hasn’t been met yet.