A Kalshi NFL prediction market trader scored a huge win in an NFL matchup that failed to produce one — much to the dismay of Dan Quinn and fans of the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.
Sunday’s Week 5 NFC East battle made history for all of the wrong reasons as the Commanders completely botched their clock management in overtime, leading to an avoidable draw. But while both teams walked away empty-handed, a Kalshi user took the market for a near-$9,000 ride.
Commanders-Giants chaos in Kalshi NFL markets
The Commanders had a 64% chance of beating the Giants, who only had a 36% chance of winning, when Sunday’s contest kicked off.
Most traders in Kalshi’s NFL prediction markets picked one of the two teams to emerge victorious. However, one user bucked the trend and risked $175 that the game would finish in the first tie of the year.
That outcome seemed utterly improbable at numerous points throughout the contest. The Commanders held a 12-3 halftime lead and led by two touchdowns with less than eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, yet neither of those when a win felt the most secure.
The Giants drove the ball to the Commanders’ 24-yard line and were setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime when running back Cam Skattebo fumbled the ball, which was recovered by a Commanders defender. Jayden Daniels then led his team down to the Giants’ 24-yard line, where an all-time gaffe occurred.
With no timeouts on their side, Daniels gave himself up on a running play that did not net any yards. The Commanders did not hustle back to the line of scrimmage to spike the ball or kick a field goal, and the clock simply ran out, even though they’d had plenty of time to prepare for the situation.
Their negligence resulted in the clock expiring with a final score of 27 apiece, cashing the Kalshi trader’s $8,756 position.
According to ESPN’s Ben Solak, this marked the first time since at least 1978 that a game ended in overtime with the final snap being an offensive snap inside the opponent’s 25-yard line.
Dan Quinn next coach fired market
Sunday’s result may have been beneficial to a very small minority of NFL prediction market traders, but it was not kind to Dan Quinn — the new leader in likelihood of being the next coach fired at Kalshi.
According to Kalshi’s market data at the time of writing, Quinn has a 69% chance of being the next coach out of his seat as the man in charge. Those odds spiked an enormous 53% since kick-off on Sunday, at which time he only had a 16% chance.
Despite that, numerous reports have suggested that Quinn’s seat in the nation’s capital is safe for the time being.
Quinn’s surge to the top of NFL prediction markets offered by Kalshi coincided with Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni dropping to a 22% chance, even after an equally-embarrassing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. Philly held a two-point lead with only eight seconds remaining when they kicked off, only for Ameer Abdullah to return it 53 yards and set up a walk-off 57-yard field goal by Cam Little.
Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh is quickly climbing the board with a 20% chance following his team’s 0-5 start. The Tennessee Titans’ Robert Saleh (14%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Todd Bowles (7%) also stand out in a market experienced significant movement.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Kalshi NFL prediction markets are generating significant interest from traders. The huge win from a $175 trade provides a snapshot of the big wins that are possible, even at the most unexpected of times — and at the expense of Dan Quinn, the Commanders, the Giants, and everyone involved in Sunday’s matchup.