Katie Zacharia, the new White House press secretary, bombed her debut in front of the microphones on Tuesday — so much so that prediction markets are asking when she will be fired by the Trump administration.
The 41-year-old conservative commentator replaced Karoline Leavitt on Oct. 9 and handled questions for the first time this week. And if it’s any indication of how it went, prediction market traders were lining up to guess when she would be out of a job almost immediately after her 14-minute debut.
Trump press secretary debut sparks prediction markets
Zacharia did not make a strong first impression on the American public. She frequently stared down and read from a script, only taking a few questions that were not challenging or confrontational. She referred to her husband as her “president,” stumbled and stammered through different points of her speech, and generally appeared to be nervous to speak in front of the White House cameras.
The White House press secretary is under constant surveillance from the American public — especially in an administration led by a president who so regularly shares unfiltered thoughts with the media or via social media. Leavitt cited burnout, sleep deprivation, and stress as reasons why she stepped down from the position after just over two-and-a-half-years.
Regardless, prediction markets aren’t giving Zacharia much of a grace period now that she’s in a position of power under Trump. Kalshi’s newly created market offers users a series of dates and corresponding probabilities for when she might be out of the position, which at the time of writing include:
- Before Oct. 24, 2026: 6%
- Before Nov. 1, 2026: 13%
- Before Jan. 1, 2027: 41%
- Before June 1, 2027: 69%
- Before Jan. 1, 2028: 85%
Polymarket has markets for before Nov. 1 (7%) and before Jan. 1, 2027 (26%).
The message from the public is clear: although Zacharia only just got started — and, in theory, should never be worse at her job than she currently is — the expectation is that she won’t last very long.
How long will Zacharia last?
There’s very limited material off of which Zacharia can be judged, but there are noticeable differences between her and Leavitt.
Her predecessor, who, again, left under her own volition, often sparred with journalists and answered confrontational questions in kind. Zacharia appeared nervous, despite not facing difficult questions.
There’s a precedent in place for Trump’s press secretaries lasting a very limited time. In 2017, Anthony Scaramucci was fired after just 10 days in the position, although that was tied to comments he made during a phone call with a reporter from The New Yorker, during which he obscenely attacked West Wing officials.
However, after independent journalist George Sisca suggested that Scaramucci would be pleased by Zacharia’s performance because his “record might get broken,” he professed his support for the press secretary.
“Not me,” he wrote. “I hope she makes it.”
The Independent’s Andrew Feinberg reported that a former Trump official who is close to people still serving called Zacharia’s debut a “train wreck.” This same individual previously called her a “joke hire” who would be fired in six months.
Zacharia previously worked as a senior communications advisor for Trump’s Truth Social media platform, part of the Department of Homeland Security's press team, and as a commentator for Fox News and Newsmax.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Although Zacharia was new to the job, she looked noticeably uncomfortable. The President's divisive nature and tendency to involve himself in controversy justifiably leaves the future of Zacharia as part of the Trump administration in doubt, according to prediction markets.