Polymarket’s prediction markets are offering contracts on when English Premier League club Manchester City will be punished after it was found guilty of 114 financial offenses.
A multi-year investigation concluded that the 10-time title-winners, who topped the league table six times in the last nine years, were found guilty of “serious breaches” of the EPL’s financial regulations. But despite the findings, penalties for the club’s actions have not been determined.
Manchester City causes chaos in prediction markets
There is no bigger story in the world of soccer than the ongoing case involving Man City, which has already filed an appeal against an independent commission’s decision to declare the club guilty of 114 financial breaches.
Filing the appeal — in which the club claimed that judgement was “unsafe” and cited “material errors of law, principle, and fact” — does not presently change the “guilty” verdict that was reached. The appeal is still in its early stages and must be granted for punishments to be reduced or abandoned.
Announcing the commission's findings without having a punishment prepared has thrown the EPL into a state of limbo. Man City currently sits atop the table with a perfect seven wins in seven matches but could face a points deduction or relegation from the league if the appeal does not go through.
Amid the uncertainty, Polymarket released prediction markets allowing traders to guess when Manchester City will have its punishment unveiled. The next deadline, Oct. 23, only carries a 3% chance.
The complete list of markets includes:
- By Oct. 23: 3%
- By Nov. 6: 9%
- By Nov. 20: 16%
- By Dec. 4: 18%
- By Dec. 18: 24%
Premier League prediction markets in flux
Whether because of possible punishments or a long-term outlook, Polymarket’s Premier League winner prediction markets don’t reveal much support for Manchester City. Defending champs Arsenal have a leading 64% chance, while the Citizens are second at 17%. Chelsea (7%), Brighton (6%), Liverpool (4%), and Manchester United are the only other teams with at least 1% probabilities.
The true nature of the Premier League title race won’t be revealed until Man City’s penalties are announced or its appeal is granted. Third-place Brighton currently faces a five-point gap on City, but it is only two points behind second-place Arsenal.
That means that a points deduction — an expected punishment — would only put Brighton one win away from taking the lead in the league table.
This carries over to races for European qualification. Liverpool currently sits in fifth place and holds a presumptive spot in the Champions League, but Man City’s points deduction would award that position to Brentford: a club that never qualified for the Champions League.
A Monday report from the Daily Mail’s Oliver Holt claimed that insiders said Man City was going to receive a points deduction that would guarantee relegation to the EFL Championship, which would be encouraged (but not required) to enforce another deduction the following season that would keep them in the second tier of English soccer for at least two years.
Possible punishments include further relegation, transfer bans, and fines. A strong reprimand would send a message to all clubs that financial abuse is unacceptable.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Manchester City has left fans, prediction markets, and team and league personnel in a state of unknowing. Matches that are being played have tangible consequences for City’s direct opponents and the other 18 teams, yet the club might be forced out of the league for its financial abuse. The upcoming verdict will be pivotal in determining if the club returns to business as usual, or is again confirmed to have committed the largest financial abuse in EPL history.