Polymarket and Kalshi have responded to creating prediction markets for the Cornell 7 and Tucker Carlson.
Polymarket archived its market that allowed users to buy and sell contracts predicting if any of the defendants in the scandal would be charged with a felony sex crime. Kalshi, meanwhile, deleted a post in which it claimed that Carlson had an 87% chance of being federally charged this year.
Cornell 7 prediction markets removed
The “Cornell 7” refers to an alleged incident in Oct. 2024, in which a woman known as Jane Doe attended a Chi Phi fraternity house at Cornell University. Jane claimed that she was given copious amounts of drugs and alcohol while being sexually assaulted by seven co-conspirators.
Following a Title IX investigation, Cornell expelled two of the students and suspended the remaining five. The Chi Phi chapter was closed at the university.
Local prosecutors initially dropped the case in 2024. Jane filed a civil lawsuit in Sept. 2026 that prompted national scrutiny, leading Tompkins County’s District Attorney to reopen a criminal investigation that will be presented to a grand jury. New York Attorney General Letitia James was later appointed by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to lead the case as a special prosecutor.
As the case drew an increased national presence, Polymarket on Sept. 30 opened prediction markets asking if any of the Cornell 7 would be charged with a federal sex crime. Users had traded more than $450,000 in contracts by the following Monday.
Polymarket initially defended the market, claiming in a statement to Front Office Sports that it was part of the company bringing “better, unbiased information about important events.” However, the market was archived following a significant public outcry that singled out LeBron James, Eli Manning, Derek Jeter, and other celebrity partners of the platform.
Kalshi, the leader in prediction markets and Polymarket’s primary competitor, said in a statement that it would not have offered contracts on the Cornell 7.
Tucker Carlson falsely depicted
Speaking of Kalshi, it is presently offering prediction markets that ask if notable figures, including Tucker Carlson, will be charged with a federal crime before the ball drops on New Year’s Eve.
“JUST IN: 87% chance Tucker Carlson is charged with a federal crime this year,” the platform posted on X, attaching pictures of the right-wing news commentator and a snapshot showing surging market probabilities.
Despite the image shared in the post, Carlson’s chances have not noticeably spiked since they went live on Kalshi’s platform. His current probability sits at 7% and has not risen above 10% since May 19. Its all-time high, according to Kalshi’s website, was 27% in March, right after Carlson baselessly claimed that the CIA was preparing a Department of Justice referral against him due to communication with Iranian nationals.
President Donald Trump — who was once supported by the now-independent Carlson — has been a full-throated supporter of prediction platforms. Although he is not directly involved with any platforms, his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi.
Neither Carlson nor Kalshi provided any public comment on the origin and deletion of the post. The prediction markets for Carlson and other notable figures remain live and available for trading.
The Trade Handle Prediction Markets Take
Polymarket and Kalshi have consistently defended the right to turn most actions and events into trading opportunities. However, offering Cornell 7 prediction markets is a test of the limits of what will be allowed in an industry that has steadily faced significant national pushback. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and other officials have expressed an interest in blocking prediction markets that are against the public interest, which could include if individuals, whether it be the Cornell 7 or Tucker Carlson, will be charged.